Blues vs. Sharks Game 5 Betting Odds, Preview: Karlsson’s Injury Looms Large

Blues vs. Sharks Game 5 Betting Odds, Preview: Karlsson’s Injury Looms Large article feature image

Jeff Curry, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Erik Karlsson

St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks Game 5 Betting odds

  • Blues odds: +110
  • Sharks odds: -130
  • Over/Under: 5.5
  • Time: 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC

>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets.

Box scores are liars.

After a controversial win in Game 3, the San Jose Sharks put forth their best effort of the series in Game 4. The Sharks owned the puck in Game 3, out-attempting the Blues at 5-on-5, 53-22. San Jose also created more expected goals, 1.6 to 1.04, at even strength.

The Hockey Gods and Jordan Binnington would have none of it, though. The rookie netminder — with the help of the posts — held the Sharks scoreless at 5-on-5 in Game 4, turning this series into a Best-of-3.

It’s hard to say only the Sharks deserved to win in Game 4, as the Blues did a good job protecting the house and that allowed Binnington to handle the rest. Prior to Game 4, poor goaltending was the story of the series, but both netminders rebounded nicely on Friday night.

Goaltending is incredibly volatile, so you can’t say both goalies have found their form, but after three games of wonky netminding, Game 4 represented a shift in gameflow. Tighter, low-scoring games probably favor the Blues as they play a more defensive style and have the better goalie on paper, but there’s no telling how these next two or three games will play out.

What we can say is that this series has been tight to this point. The Sharks have the better shot share (53.6%) but the Blues have generated more expected goals (51.4%) at 5-on-5.

This series always likely to go deep and we’ve officially hit the business portion of this fixture. Let’s see what the market says about Game 5.

Game 5 Betting Analysis

There is a cloud hovering over Sunday’s game. San Jose’s talismanic defenseman, Erik Karlsson, was held off the ice for much of the third period in Game 4 and is questionable for Game 5.

Karlsson has definitely been operating below 100% for a lot of the postseason but is still one of the best players in this series. If the long-haired Swede can’t go, that changes this game drastically.

We likely won’t know Karlsson’s status until right before puck drop, but for now it seems like bookmakers are assuming he’ll play.

According to The Action Network odds page, the Sharks are hovering around the -130 mark depending on the sportsbook. That number makes sense given where they closed for Game 1 (-126) and Game 2 (-129) with Karlsson in the lineup.

At -130/+110, the market is implying the Sharks have a 54.3% (without adjusting for the vig) chance of winning Game 5, which is pretty on point. In other words, if you think San Jose’s chances of winning on Sunday are greater than 54.3%, you have an edge on the Sharks.

With a healthy Karlsson, I think the Sharks are the better team and would give them the edge on neutral ice. These odds suggest St. Louis would be a slight favorite when you remove home-ice advantage (approximately 5%). I don’t agree with that, but my edge on the Sharks at the moment is minimal — especially with Karlsson’s status.

Assuming Karlsson plays, I’ll be looking for -125 or better on the Sharks.