Montreal Canadiens vs. Dallas Stars Odds, Pick & Preview: Value on Tuesday’s Total

Canadiens vs. Stars Odds

The Montreal Canadiens are on a quick turnaround against the Dallas Stars on Tuesday night. Montreal lost 5-2 to the Arizona Coyotes on Monday and will face an even stiffer challenge against the Stars.

Dallas has dropped three of its past four, but continues to turn in strong defensive metrics. That should handcuff the Habs to their recent downturn in offensive production, leading to a low-scoring game.

Not Much Going Right for Canadiens

There isn't much going right for the Canadiens at the moment. The Habs have suffered through some poor performances in 2022, and there aren't any indicators that greener pastures await.

Tonight's contest will be the Habs' third of seven straight road games, as the NHL postponed at least five home contests as Montreal contends with COVID-19 restrictions impacting attendance.

As expected, that has had a negative impact on their metrics as the Canadiens have struggled on the road this season. The Habs have the 30th-ranked expected goals-for percentage at 5 on 5 as visitors this season and the worst points percentage.

Montreal has played six games since the league returned to action after the holidays. In that span, they've failed to drive more than 23 scoring chances in any contest and have driven more than nine high-danger chances just once.

Additionally, their metrics are trending in the wrong direction, as Montreal is averaging 14.8 scoring and 7.0 high-danger chances over their past five games. Those terrible production metrics have a direct correlation with output, as the Habs have been limited to seven goals over their five-game stretch, with three of those coming from high-danger areas.

Conversely, the Habs have given up 15 high-danger goals thanks to their shoddy defensive zone coverage. It's unlikely they improve against a defensively efficient Stars team.

Stars Still Playing Well on Defense

The Stars remain a responsible defensive team. Dallas ranks eighth in shots against, seventh in scoring chances against, and fifth in high-danger chances against at 5 on 5, culminating in the sixth-ranked expected goals-against.

Other than a couple of games against the Florida Panthers, who nobody can stop these days, the Stars continue to play a suffocating brand of hockey.

Dallas has limited seven of their past nine opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances, with a rolling average of 8.7 quality opportunities per game. Scoring chances have been even harder to come by, as the Stars' opponents have averaged 21.7 over the nine-game sample, with only one team attempting more than 24. The Stars can lean into their strength against a subpar Canadiens squad.

In contrast, the Stars offense has hit a bit of a wall over their recent sample. Dallas has scored more than one goal just once over their previous four outings, being held to eight or fewer high-danger chances in three of four and 26 or fewer scoring chances in all four. This season, Dallas has been prone to extended dry spells, and their recent performances could be the start of another offensive drought.

Canadiens vs. Stars Pick

The Habs have been entirely ineffective offensively over their recent stretch, a trend that the Stars can relate to. I'm anticipating those trends will continue on Tuesday night, with goals coming at a premium.

The price could dip lower on the total, so pull the trigger sooner rather than later if you like the under.

Pick: Under 5.5 (-115)