NHL Betting Strategy: Fatigue Providing Canucks vs. Lightning & Coyotes vs. Panthers Value on Tuesday
Scott Audette /NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Steven Stamkos
- The Lightning are on a seven-game win streak, but are playing for the seventh time in 11 days against the Canucks tonight.
- See what history says about betting teams in the midst of a busy stretch.
After getting swept by the Blue Jackets in the first round of the NHL playoffs one season ago, the Lightning’s rockiness continued into the start of the 2019-20 season. At the end of November, Tampa’s record sat at 12-9-3.
For context, the Lightning’s ninth loss last season didn’t come until Jan. 13 …
But the Bolts seemed to have turned a new leaf in 2020. They’ve climbed into the third spot in the Atlantic at 24-13-4 and have yet to lose this calendar year, riding a seven-game win streak that dates back to Dec. 23.
Odds as of Tuesday at 2:25 p.m. ET and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
With the holiday break following the first game on that streak, the six most recent wins have all come since Dec. 28. In other words, tonight’s meeting with the Canucks will mark Tampa’s seventh game in 11 days — a pretty heavy stretch for any hockey team, and one that’s historically provided betting value.
NHL Tuesday Betting System Picks
Since 2005 — the beginning of our Bet Labs database — teams having played at least six games in their previous 10 days have gone 359-447, losing 60.3 units for moneyline bettors (a -7.5% return on investment).
Had you instead faded such teams, you’d have racked up 47.8 units (a 5.9% ROI).
The return improves even more when the tired team is also a good one. Filtering by opponents whose record is above .500 returns a record of 208-179, 49.5 units gained and a 12.8% ROI.
And now for the real kickers …
Underdogs and road teams have been especially valuable in this spot, and combining the two presents the perfect storm.
- Underdogs: 108-112, +43.7 units, 19.8% ROI
- Road teams: 83-78, +40.5 units, 25.1% ROI
- Road dogs: 71-70, +38.2 units, 27.1% ROI
As you can see, this spot has come up only 141 times over the past decade and a half. But surprisingly, the Canucks are not the only team fitting the bill tonight.
On the exact same stretch as their in-state neighbors, the Panthers are also playing in their seventh game in 11 days tonight as home favorites against Arizona, making the Coyotes another match for the system.
So while it may not feel right to fade the Lightning in the midst of a seven-game heater, history says there’s value in banking on fatigue to kick in tonight.
Tuesday System Matches
- Canucks +170 at Lightning (7 p.m. ET)
- Coyotes +115 at Panthers (7 p.m. ET)