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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars Game 6 Odds, Pick & Betting Preview (Monday, Sept. 28)

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Dallas Stars Game 6 Odds, Pick & Betting Preview (Monday, Sept. 28) article feature image

Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Pavelski

  • The Tampa Bay Lightning are favored over the Dallas Stars in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final.
  • Dallas is getting out-chanced and out-possessed in this series, but making the most of its opportunities, which is exactly the type of game it needs to play to beat the high-powered Lightning.
  • Get Michael Leboff's full breakdown for Stars vs. Lightning below.

Lightning vs. Stars Odds

Lightning Odds -162 [BET NOW]
Stars Odds +140 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 5 (-143/+118) [BET NOW]
Time Monday, 8 p.m. ET

Odds updated as of Sunday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are hard to stop.

The Bolts ooze talent, dominate possession, create plenty of scoring chances and play a sound defensive game to boot. They have a handful of players who can wreck a game at the drop of a helmet, but they also have enough depth to back their dynamos up in case they are shut down.

The Dallas Stars are hard to beat.

Dallas plays a frustrating defense-first style of hockey that allows its opponents to have the puck, so long as they don’t dare try and get it into the high-danger areas. The Stars are happy to sit back, pack the middle and wait you out. If you make a mistake, they spring to action and hit you on the counterattack. It’s a really tough style to gameplan against.

Dallas may not have as many paths to success Tampa, but that doesn’t matter when the Stars are on song like they were in Game 5.

Even though the Stars were out-attempted, 87-63, at even strength, they created 18 high-danger scoring chances and 3.88 expected goals and limited the Lightning to 11 and 2.75, respectively. The Bolts may have had a lot more of the puck, but the Stars did more with their time with the biscuit. That’s exactly how they want to play.

5-on-5 Stat Lightning Stars
Goals per 60 2.13 2.77
Expected Goals per 60 2.36 2.21
Shot Attempts per 60 62.02 45.4
High-Danger Chances per 60 10.23 11.1

Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.

Series Betting History

After closing at virtually the same price in Games 1 through 4, the price on Dallas finally hopped ahead of Game 5, closing at +148 at DraftKings. That wasn’t all that unexpected since the Stars were coming off three losses on the spin and weren’t all that competitive in any of them.

One solid game later and the Stars are back down to +140, meaning they have a 41.7% chance of sending this series to Game 7 according to implied probability.

Odds Lightning Stars
Game 1 -157 +135
Game 2 -159 +135
Game 3 -157 +135
Game 4 -155 +133
Game 5 -175 +148
Game 6 -162 +140

Game 6 Betting Analysis

If you’ve been reading along with these previews to this point (thank you), you likely know how this section ends. I’ll tell you about how +140 is a good number on the Stars even though the Lightning are likely to win.

I do not expect the Stars to replicate Saturday’s performance in Game 6. It took two overtimes to get the job done, but Dallas was the better team and if it wasn’t for a gargantuan performance from Andrei Vasilevskiy in net, the Stars could have won that game 5-2. If they did that we probably wouldn’t be getting +140 on them, though.

The good news for Dallas backers is that the Stars don’t need to play a perfect game to win. The Stars are experts at getting deep into games and turning them into next-goal-wins contests. And if someone offered you +140 on a next-goal-wins hockey game, you’d take it every time.

So in closing, I think +140 is a good number on the Stars, even though the Lightning are likely to win.

There’s a +150 out there at William Hill as of Sunday night, and I’d play it down to +140.

The Bet: Dallas Stars +140 or better

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