NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Ducks vs. Flames (Dec. 3)
Debora Robinson/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Zegras
Ducks vs. Flames Odds
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
Historically, the Calgary Flames have had trouble playing in California, particularly against the Anaheim Ducks. In total, the Flames are 12-46-6 against Anaheim for a paltry 23.4% winning percentage.
Granted, Calgary has been a much better team this season; however, their problems in SoCal could be compounded by playing on the second night of a back-to-back in which they started their primary goalie on the first night.
The factors working against the Flames don’t stop there. Calgary has been a much different team on the road; their offensive and defensive metrics take a hit, resulting in a mediocre expected goals-for percentage, which looks worse compared to their elite home metrics.
The Flames have been less reliable in their own end on the road, giving up an average of 10.9 high-danger chances per game, a substantial increase from the 7.2 they give up on home ice.
That has resulted in a big swing in their expected goals-for percentage, with the Flames putting up the best home rating in the league at 64.3% compared to their 13th-ranked 47.9% mark on the road. In total, the Flames have outplayed just six of their opponents through their first 14 road games.
However, those poor showings haven’t impacted their points percentage as expected. The Flames are much better than their advanced metrics imply, posting the best actual goals-for and points percentage in the NHL. That has shifted their PDO to a league-leading 1.053 on the road, setting them up for a fall from their unsustainable road metrics pedestal.
The 2021-22 NHL season was supposed to be a struggle for the Ducks. They were projected as one of the worst teams in the league, with some of the longest odds on the Stanley Cup futures board. And although they may be overachieving relative to expectations, their advanced analytics support that the Ducks successful run will continue.
The Ducks have been on a good run, outplaying 10 of their previous 13 opponents at five-on-five, posting a cumulative 53.5% expected goals-for rating over that span, slightly above their 9-4-0 record over that stretch. That sustainable level of play is also reflected in their PDO, which is bang on average at 1.000.
Defense has been the foundation of the Ducks’ success this season. Anaheim has limited their opponents to nine or fewer quality chances in four of their past six and 21 or fewer scoring opportunities in five of six. That is right on their season averages of 8.8 and 21.5, respectively.
Flames vs. Ducks Pick
The Ducks can lean into their strong defensive play against a Flames team on the second night of their back-to-back and due for regression on the road. Calgary gave up 42 shots, 37 scoring, and 13 high-danger chances last night against the Los Angeles Kings and are in a worse position tonight with their backup goalie in net.
Don’t pass up plus-money on the home side.
Pick: Ducks +105
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