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Flyers vs. Avalanche NHL Odds, Prediction: Bet Colorado as Big Favorite

Flyers vs. Avalanche NHL Odds, Prediction: Bet Colorado as Big Favorite article feature image
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Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Cale Makar

  • The Colorado Avalanche are sizeable favorites on Tuesday night against the Philadelphia Flyers.
  • Colorado is starting to get healthy and, at home, has a considerable edge against a reeling Philadelphia side.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting prediction.

Flyers vs. Avalanche Odds

Flyers Odds +195
Avalanche Odds -240
Over/Under 6 (-110/-110)
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV TVAS
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Colorado Avalanche have lost four of their last five games due in no small part to injuries, but they’re starting to get healthy, and they’re up against the freefalling Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday night in Denver.

Given all that, is it safe to bet on the Avalanche, even if they’re still nowhere near 100 percent?

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No Fight From Flyers

First, let’s discuss why Philadelphia might lose to Colorado even with the Avalanche missing some of their key players.

Part of it’s because the Flyers are far from healthy themselves. Sean Couturier (back) and Cam Atkinson (upper body) haven’t played at all this season while Ryan Ellis (back) will miss the rest of the season, so Philadelphia is without two of its top-six forwards and its best defenseman.

Plus, Philadelphia just isn’t that great a team. The Flyers have a 9-13-7 record, but even that arguably makes them look better than they are. Philadelphia got off to a 7-3-2 start because initially goaltender Carter Hart was able to carry the team. He posted a 6-0-2 record, 1.97 GAA and .946 save percentage in eight contests through Nov. 5.

Since then, though, he’s 2-8-4 with a 3.36 GAA and .881 save percentage. If Hart turns things around, then it would certainly help the Flyers, but to be fair, his numbers aren’t entirely his fault.

Philadelphia has an expected 5v5 goals against of 65.93 this season, per Moneypuck, which is the fourth worst in the NHL. Meanwhile, the Flyers have allowed 10.93 fewer 5v5 goals than expected, which is the fifth best.

What that means is Philadelphia’s goaltending actually hasn’t been bad. It’s still true that Hart has failed to force wins out of the team lately, but the Flyers’ bigger problem is their defense.

Even the Flyers’ leaky defense isn’t their biggest issue, though. The thing that’s holding them back more than anything is their inability to score goals. The Flyers rank 31st offensively with just 2.41 goals per game.

Kevin Hayes is having a great season with nine goals and 28 points in 29 games while Travis Konecny is complimenting him with 11 goals and 24 points in 23 contests. After that, though, the Flyers’ next best player is Joel Farabee with 15 points.

Tony DeAngelo has 14 points, but he’s such a big part of the Flyers’ aforementioned defensive problems that even with his offensive contributions, he’s been a healthy scratch in Philadelphia’s last two games.


Avalanche Heating Up?

When the Avalanche lost to the Flyers on Dec. 5, they were at the worst point of their injury woes. Artturi Lehkonen (upper body) and Valeri Nichushkin (ankle) were both unavailable for that contest, but are back now. Lehkonen has seven goals and 18 points in 23 games this season, and Nichushkin has seven goals and 13 points in nine contests, so having both of them available is huge for Colorado.

That said, the Avalanche still aren’t out of the woods. Gabriel Landeskog (knee) hasn’t played yet this season while Nathan MacKinnon, who sustained an upper-body injury early in Colorado’s game against the Flyers, isn’t an option yet either.

Under normal circumstances they’d be two of Colorado’s top three forwards along with Mikko Rantanen, who at least is still healthy. The Avalanche are also still missing defensemen Kurtis MacDermid (lower body), Bowen Byram (lower body) and Josh Manson (lower body).

To summarize, the Avalanche have gotten two top-six forwards back since they last faced Philadelphia, but are in no way close to full strength. Still, they might be good enough. Colorado took the Rangers to a shootout Friday before falling 2-1, and then the Avalanche won a 3-2 overtime win against St. Louis on Sunday, so they might be turning a corner.

Tuesday’s contest against Philadelphia will also be in Denver while the last contest was on the road, so that naturally helps too. Under normal circumstances, there’s no question Colorado would be the better team. This is mostly the same group that won the Cup while the Flyers entered the season looking like a candidate to get the first overall pick.

Flyers vs. Avalanche Pick

The injuries are still a factor for the Avs, but at this point they should be healthy enough to be regarded as the favorites. Unfortunately for those looking to bet on this game, that’s a popular opinion.

At the time of writing, taking Colorado on the moneyline is offering a -225 potential payout on FanDuel. That’s hardly enticing. On top of that, the puck line spread is 1.5 goals in favor of the Flyers. You can get a +114 potential payout if you grab Colorado on the puck line, but do you feel confident enough in Colorado, sans Landeskog and MacKinnon, to assume that it’ll win by at least two goals?

I think a good compromise here on FanDuel is the 60 Minute Line where Colorado is being offered at -132. That way you don’t have to worry about the Avalanche beating the spread, but you get a much higher potential payout than the moneyline. Granted, you’d lose if the game goes to overtime, but I feel like that’s a more than fair tradeoff when measured against the increased possible reward.

Pick: Colorado Avalanche 60 Minute Line -132 (play down to -145)

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