Flyers vs. Ducks Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Favored Anaheim to Secure Win (Jan. 4)
Debora Robinson/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Anaheim Ducks goaltender Anthony Stolarz.
- The Ducks are home favorites in Tuesday night's matchup with the Flyers.
- Anaheim has rebounded after a pretty rough stretch and is playing like earlier in the season.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the matchup, including a betting pick.
Flyers vs. Ducks Odds
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
The Philadelphia Flyers conclude their four-game road trip out west Tuesday when they take on the Anaheim Ducks.
The Flyers have a respectable 1-1-1 record through their first three games. However, their metrics imply they’ve been lucky to collect any points.
On the other side, the Ducks haven’t won since the NHL returned to action, but they started getting analytics working in their favor last time out.
Can Anaheim build off its most recent outing against a Philadelphia squad that has struggled on the numbers all season?
Objectively, the Flyers have been one of the NHL’s worst teams, but that’s not reflected in their record. Philadelphia sits second to last in expected goals percentage, posting a 45.1% rating this season.
Those subpar performances are reflected in their recent outings, as the Flyers have posted a 42.9% xG rating at 5-on-5 since returning to action three games ago. More telling, they’ e been outplayed in all three games, with worse defensive metrics in each outing.
A close look at Philadelphia’s game scores leads one to believe it’s playing without its sticks in the defending zone. Opponents have attempted 40 quality chances at 5-on-5 and 53 across all strengths in the past three games.
Scoring chances are also on the extreme end of the spectrum, with the Flyers allowing 122 opportunities in the three-game sample, including at least 48 over their previous two outings.
The good news is Carter Hart is the expected starter against the Ducks. However, Hart hasn’t played since Dec. 16 and we’ve seen other goaltenders struggle mightily getting back into game mode after the holiday hiatus.
Hart gives Philadelphia the best chance at winning, but don’t be surprised if it takes a contest or two to get acclimated to game speed.
It took the Ducks a couple of games, but they’re getting back to the defensive brand of hockey that helped them be successful in the early part of the season.
After giving up 30 or more scoring opportunities and 12 or more quality chances at 5-on-5 through their first two games back, Anaheim held Colorado to 20 and six, respectively, last time out. Expect similar efforts from the Ducks now that they have their sea legs underneath them.
We’ve also keyed in on them as progression candidates over their coming games. Anaheim has posted a .968 PDO at 5-on-5 over its past seven games, winning just two matchups during that span.
The Ducks’ advanced metrics support they should have more wins, as they’ve posted an xG percentage above 50.0% in three of those games and limited opponents to six or fewer high-danger chances in four of those contests.
Home ice means a lot to a young team as well. Anaheim has out-possessed, outshot and out-chanced its opponents in scoring and high-danger chances, putting up a 66.7% points percentage.
Anaheim goaltenders have been sensational in their friendly confines, recording the fifth-best save percentage in the entire league.
Ducks vs. Flyers Pick
The Flyers are overachieving relative to their metrics and are due for correction. Conversely, the Ducks haven’t lived up to their numbers over a recent sample and are due for a few more wins.
Those waves collide here in a contest that we’re expecting Anaheim to walk away from victorious. At -135 or better, we’re backing the hosts to get the win.
Pick: Anaheim (-135)