NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Hurricanes vs Penguins (Thursday, December 21)
Via Jeanine Leech/Getty Images. Pictured: Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Tristan Jarry (35) tends net during the third period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Arizona Coyotes on December 12, 2023, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA.
Hurricanes vs. Penguins Odds
| Hurricanes Odds | -120 |
| Penguins Odds | +100 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -110 / -110 |
It might be a little early to start talking about the postseason, but you can't discount the importance of intradivisional battles in today's NHL. With three teams guaranteed a playoff berth out of every division, teams can't afford four-point swings against their most common foes.
That's especially true for the Pittsburgh Penguins, who are trying to make up ground in the Metropolitan Division already. Heading into Thursday night's contest against the Carolina Hurricanes, the Pens sit seventh in the division, albeit just eight points behind the second-place Philadelphia Flyers. It's still early, but Pittsburgh can't afford to lose any ground to teams ahead of them in the standings.
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That means this matchup against the Hurricanes is important because Carolina occupies the fourth seed in the division, which is good enough for a wild-card spot. Despite a recent slide, the Canes remain one of the top analytics teams in the league. They're hoping Tuesday night's victory over the Vegas Golden Knights is a sign of things to come as they work their way back up the standings.
Find my Hurricanes vs. Penguins NHL preview and prediction below.
Other than a recent spell away from home, the Hurricanes have their analytics in order. Carolina sits third in Expected Goals For Percentage thanks to its top ranked Corsi and Scoring Chance Ratings and sixth-best High-danger Chance Percentage. Now that they've had time to settle back into the Eastern time zone, we're seeing the typically dominant Hurricanes we've grown accustomed to.
Heading into Thursday's tilt, the Canes have outplayed their opponents in three of their past four. Over that stretch, they've accumulated a 55.3% Expected Goals For Rating by out-chancing their opponents in Scoring and High-danger Opportunities in all but one of those games.
The most impressive part of their recent string of successes is Carolina's suffocating defensive standards. The Canes have limited three of four opponents to 15 or fewer Scoring and nine or fewer High-danger Chances. On average, opponents are mustering 16.5 and 6.0, respectively, highlighting Carolina's impenetrable standards.
Still, that solid defensive play has yet to yield the decreased output we would expect. Hurricanes goalies have combined to stop just 89.3% of shots at 5-on-5 and 90.0% overall, despite facing fewer quality chances. Their save percentage should start to creep up into normal ranges, facilitated by the Canes' improved play in their own end.
Although the Penguins have been a top-tier analytics team, it's becoming more evident that they don't have the personnel to compete on a nightly basis. Their aging core remains productive but has been less effective at translating chances into output. Don't expect them to buck that trend against a rigid Canes squad.
Pittsburgh's offense has been tepid. Despite attempting the fifth-most Scoring and High-danger Chances, the Pens have compiled the fifth-worst shooting percentage at 5-on-5. Their relative position across all strengths looks even worse, with Sidney Crosby and company falling one spot to 29th in the NHL in overall shooting percentage.
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As ineffective as they've looked in the attacking zone, the Penguins have been kept afloat by above-average goaltending. 13 of Tristan Jarry's 22 starts have been quality appearances, resulting in 5.5 Goals Saved Above Expected and 4.0 Goalie Point Shares. In more traditional terms, Jarry's posted a 2.61 Goals Against Average with a 91.3% save percentage.
Moreover, Jarry's in an ideal bounce back situation on Thursday night. He's coming off one of his worst performances of the season, a game in which he allowed four goals on 14 shots for a laughable 71.4% save percentage. Inevitably, Jarry's metrics should start working back up to his career averages.
Hurricanes vs. Penguins
Betting Pick & Prediction
There are several factors pointing toward this game staying beneath its total. First, the Hurricanes have reasserted themselves as Stanley Cup contenders. Carolina has settled back into its usual dominant standards by tidying up play in its own end.
Further, after years of success, the Pens' offensive well has run dry. Regardless of strength or venue, Pittsburgh has been unable to generate any meaningful offense. Still, they've been saved by Jarry and Alex Nedeljkovic, who have emerged as one of the best tandems in the league.
Goals will be at a premium in this Metropolitan Division showdown, and we're playing Under 6.5 at PPG Paints Arena.
Pick: Under 6.5 -110 (FanDuel)
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