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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs. Oilers (March 12)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Lightning vs. Oilers (March 12) article feature image
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Andrew Bershaw/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tampa Bay Lightning standout Ondrej Palat.

Lightning vs. Oilers Odds

Lightning Odds -140
Oilers Odds +115
Over/Under 6.5 (-105 / -115)
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Atlantic Division’s second-place Tampa Bay Lightning travel to Canada for Saturday’s game against the Pacific Division’s fourth-place Edmonton Oilers.

This is the second meeting between these teams this season, with the Lightning earning the 5-3 victory back in February.

So, can Tampa Bay take care of business again or will Edmonton get its revenge on home ice?

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning enter this contest amidst a two-game losing streak following Thursday’s 4-1 loss to Calgary. Tampa Bay looks to avoid a third consecutive defeat, which is something that has only happened twice this season.

The Lightning have had success when priced as a road favorite, as they’re 8-2 over their last 10 games in such situations. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy is the projected starter and will look to bounce back from a rare setback.

One of the league’s best goaltenders, Vasilevskiy has had a lot of success when starting for the Lightning when they’re priced as a road favorite. Vasilevskiy has won eight of his last 10 road games as a favorite, with all eight of those wins coming in regulation.

After a couple of rough starts lately, we should expect a bounce-back game from Vasilevskiy. This season, he ranks seventh in the league in 5-on-5 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes.

Vasilevskiy will have plenty of help in front of him as the back-to-back world champions have yet another great lineup. Tampa Bay ranks 10th in the league in 5-on-5 xG for per 60 minutes (xGF) and fifth in 5-on-5 xGA per 60 minutes.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers enter this game following Wednesday’s 4-3 overtime victory over Washington. Edmonton is priced as a rare home underdog, a position it has found itself in only three times this season.

Those three games haven’t fared well for the Oilers, who are 1-2 in those games with a minus-eight goal differential. Both of those losses were in regulation.

The biggest problem for the Oilers  has been their inconsistent goaltending. Mikko Koskinen is the confirmed starter and has had his struggles of late.

Over his last three starts, Koskinen has a below-average 0.892 save percentage and a 3.33 goals allowed average. Koskinen has had a tough season, as he ranks just 19th among starting goaltenders in 5-on-5 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx) overall.

Tampa Bay could take advantage of Edmonton’s below-average blue line in this matchup as well. Edmonton ranks just 18th in 5-on-5 xGA per 60 minutes.

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Lightning vs. Oilers Pick

Not only are the Lightning the better team, but they’ve had the Oilers’ number over the last few seasons. Tampa Bay has won this matchup in five consecutive meetings.

The Lightning have the goaltending advantage, the analytic edge and the trends favor them in this contest.

I like the Tampa Bay to get this thing done in regulation.

Pick: Tampa Bay 3-Way ML (+105 — Play up to -110)

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