NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs. Ducks (Nov. 28)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs. Ducks (Nov. 28) article feature image
Credit:

Debora Robinson/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Anaheim Ducks standout Ryan Getzlaf.

  • The red-hot Maple Leafs visit the Ducks on Sunday in Anaheim.
  • Grant White breaks down his best bet for this matchup below.

Maple Leafs vs. Ducks Odds

Maple Leafs Odds -175
Ducks Odds +150
Over/Under 5.5
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Two of the hottest NHL teams go toe to toe Sunday when the Anaheim Ducks host the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Maple Leafs have won 13 of their last 15 games, while the Ducks have triumphed in nine of their last 12 outings. All three of Anaheim’s losses have came over their previous four contests, but the betting market underestimates its chances in this meeting.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Advanced analytics ebb and flow throughout the season, and the Maple Leafs have enjoyed a successful flow period. Now is the time for Toronto to start ebbing, and we’re starting to see cracks in their game scores.

The Maple Leafs’ defense has been utterly ineffective over this recent stretch. Toronto has given up 10 or more high-danger chances at 5-on-5 in four of their past five games, getting out-chanced in three of them. Jack Campbell and Joseph Woll have bailed the Maple Leafs out, though, allowing just two high-danger goals against at 5-on-5 over the five-game sample.

That disconnect between expected and actual values also exists within the Leafs’ offensive metrics. The Atlantic Division leaders have a 26.3% high-danger shooting percentage at 5-on-5 over their past three games, out-scoring their opponents by a 10-0 margin.

The Maple Leafs’ shooting and save percentages combined to go over 1.000 in eight of their previous nine contests. Cumulatively, Toronto posted a 1.052 PDO over that nine-game span, bringing its season-long PDO above average and putting them at risk of correction in the opposite direction.

Anaheim Ducks

Defense has been the foundation of the Ducks’ success this season, and they’ve gotten back on track with solid efforts in their recent outings. Anaheim has limited their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger and 18 or fewer scoring chances in three consecutive games. That will be critical to limiting the Maple Leafs’ attack.

Those strong outings contributed to an expected goals ratings above 50 percent in three of their past four games, a span in which the Ducks have only one win. Sustained defensive structure is critical to Anaheim getting back on track. They’re already due for more wins than they have over their recent sample.

We’re also expecting another brilliant performance from John Gibson. The 28-year-old has a 94.3% save percentage at home this season, winning six of eight starts. He will enter this game on extra rest, which has resulted in outstanding performances to start the season. Gibson has a 95.2% save percentage when coming in with three or more days rest,  going 3-1-0 overall.

The must-have app for NHL bettors

The best NHL betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

Ducks vs. Leafs Pick

The Maple Leafs always draw a significant amount of betting action, so this line could shift further in their favor as we approach the first puck drop.

Regardless, the Ducks are the right side to be on ahead of this inter-conference battle to end the NHL week.

That said, Anaheim  at +150 or better is worth the wager.

Pick: Anaheim (+150)

How would you rate this article?