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NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs. Flyers (April 2)

NHL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Maple Leafs vs. Flyers (April 2) article feature image
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Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Jack Campbell.

  • The Leafs are heavy road favorites against the Flyers on Saturday night.
  • Jack Campbell is expected to return for Toronto, but are the Leafs overvalued in this spot?
  • Nick Martin breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Maple Leafs vs. Flyers Odds

Leafs Odds -275
Flyers Odds +220
Over/Under 6.5
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

Toronto will take to the road after a memorable night Thursday, which saw Auston Matthews become a 50-goal scorer for the first time in a 7-3 win over Winnipeg.

Can the  keep the momentum going against a lottery bound Flyers team, or will a team that has been prone to playing letdown games produce another here?

Maple Leafs Looking for Better Netminding

The Leafs’ goaltending situation has been somewhat of a nightmare, and we know that is far and away the club’s main concern heading down the stretch into the postseason.

Saturday night offers a massive contest for Toronto with Jack Campbell set to return from injury. Campbell is realistically Toronto’s main hope to see sound goaltending this postseason, so they will look to put forth a great effort Saturday.

Toronto has been dominant of late and put forth statement wins over cup contenders Carolina, Florida, and Boston over a 6-2-0 tear. During that span, the Leafs have played to a 58.92 Expected Goals rate, and a +10 Goal Differential.

The Leafs have played a well balanced game of late and have done very well at suppressing high quality chances against while generating a lot of offense themselves.

Toronto’s power play unit has continued to offer some excellent rhythm and does a tremendous job of offering a lot of interchangeable looks. This has been a nightmare to sort out for penalty killers, and it’s no surprise the Leafs have clicked to a league-best 30% success rate.

Jack Campbell will look to reset in his return from injury here after a very shaky couple months of play. Campbell holds a -1.8 Goals Saved Above Expected rating with a .914 Save Percentage in 40 games played this season, but those numbers have slowly trended downwards from his tremendous start to the year.

Flyers Looking to Bounce Back

Philly will return home looking to reset after a tough road swing in which the Flyers managed a 1-4-0 record. Philly competed hard throughout the trip, which featured games against some tough competition in Colorado, Minnesota, Nashville, and St. Louis.

The Flyers have far from quit skating out a tough season and have competed with a purpose recently, with some young pieces showing lots of potential.

But consistent with the rest of the season, the offensive play has looked flat and has struggled to generate much over the last two weeks. Philly holds a 24th-worst xGF/60 over the last eight games and has actually scored below that expected mark.

Defensively, the Flyers have not been dominant either but could see somewhat of an addition by subtraction scenario Saturday. The Flyers appearing likely to healthy scratch Keith Yandle, ending his NHL record ironman streak.

Carter Hart should start in goal for the Flyers here, and he has put together a great bounce back season while playing behind a suspect defensive team.

Hart holds a -0.2 GSAx with a .909 Save Percentage in 42 games played this season. However, as I love to point out, even Goals Saved Above Expected ratings can be significantly influenced by a team’s play in front of goal because a number of factors do not show accurately in Expected Goals data.

Maple Leafs vs. Flyers Pick

Toronto will likely be desperate to play a very sharp contest here as Campbell returns from injury. With how the Leafs have played of late, that should be bad news for Philadelphia, and I believe Toronto can win this one comfortably.

Philadelphia has played with a lot of pace and urgency of late but is still horribly equipped to try to deal with Toronto’s pack of elite talents upfront.

The Leafs should comfortably control more of the play at five-on-five, but things could definitely get even worse should Philly take a number of penalties. Toronto holds the league’s number one Power Play at 30.0% and faces a Flyers Penalty Kill which has struggled killing just 75.4% of penalties this season.

We should see a hard fought contest here, but the Leafs’ talent and offensive prowess should show through against the Flyers. I’m going to play the Leafs -1.5 at -105 and would back them down to -125.

Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs -1.5 -105 (Play to -125)

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