NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Oilers vs Coyotes (Monday, February 19)
DALLAS, TEXAS – FEBRUARY 17: Evan Bouchard #2 of the Edmonton Oilers is congratulated by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins #93 and Leon Draisaitl #29 after scoring the game winning goal in overtime against the Dallas Stars at American Airlines Center on February 17, 2024 in Dallas, Texas. (Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
Oilers vs. Coyotes Odds
| Oilers Odds | -260 |
| Coyotes Odds | +210 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 -125 / +105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Edmonton Oilers vs. Arizona Coyotes on Monday, February 19 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
The Western Conference playoff race is tightening up as we head into the stretch drive in the NHL. The Edmonton Oilers remain in the thick of it in the Pacific Division, currently occupying the third seed. Conversely, the Arizona Coyotes have fallen to seventh in the Central Division, needing to make up ground in a hurry if they hope to stay relevant.
Unfortunately for the Coyotes, there's little to get excited about as they remain a bottom-feeding analytics team. Arizona has struggled to deliver a competitive on-ice product, giving the Oilers an unneeded advantage in Monday's matinee.
Their winning streak might have come to an end, but the Oilers continue to deliver some of the best metrics across the NHL. Heading into Monday's action, Edmonton leads the league in expected goals-for rating, strengthening its standing over its recent sample. They are only 3-3-0 after the All-Star Break, but the Oilers' metrics continue to support that more wins should follow.
Edmonton's average record doesn't reflect their on-ice dominance. In six games since the mid-season pause, the Oilers have outplayed their opponents in five of six outings, posting a 59.3% expected goals-for rating. That's pulled up their season-long benchmark to 57.5%, tops in the show. As expected, their solid offensive play has been a hallmark of their success, but we also can't discount the Oilers' stout defensive play.
Across the six-game sample, Edmonton has limited its opponents to eight or fewer high-danger chances in four of six. Moreover, scoring chances have been in short supply, with the Oilers holding all but one of those squads to 20 or fewer. Predictably, that correlates with fewer goals against, as only the Los Angeles Kings have scored more than two goals at 5-on-5.
Combined with the Oilers 13.0 high-danger and 25.0 scoring opportunities per game, Edmonton should have more than three wins since regular season play resumed. We're expecting those wins to start piling up, starting with the Coyotes on Monday afternoon.
The Coyotes had a good run to start the season, doing their best to stay afloat in the Central Division. However, Arizona has outlasted its underwhelming metrics, and its record reflects that. The Desert Dogs are an appalling 1-8-1 over their last 10, dropping nine straight decisions. Based on their analytics, that record is unlikely to improve.
The Coyotes' record reflects their poor metrics. They sit bottom 10 in most advanced categories, encapsulated by their 48.2% expected goals-for rating. Sadly, that's a benchmark they can only aspire to based on their current form. Arizona has been outplayed in five of their past seven, bottoming out with a 41.1% expected goals-for rating.
Most of that responsibility is saddled on their offense, as the Yotes fail to generate anything substantive. Arizona has been held to nine or fewer high-danger chances in all but one of those contests, out-chancing their opponents just twice over that sample. As expected, that's cratered their offensive production. The Coyotes have recorded more than two goals at 5-on-5 once over their last seven games, dooming them to similar outcomes moving forward.
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Oilers vs. Coyotes
Betting Pick & Prediction
We're anticipating the Coyotes' regression to continue against the Oilers. Arizona's actual goals-for rating remains above expected and their PDO remains overinflated at 1.008. Combined with their ineffective play, there's no end in sight for when the Yotes' slide is expected to end.
The opposite is true for Edmonton. Although they don't have as many wins after the All-Star Break, Connor McDavid and company continue to assert themselves as the best in the NHL.
The current betting price doesn't reflect that discrepancy, leaving an edge in backing the Oilers in this one. At -260, Edmonton is worth every penny, but I would back them up to -275.
Pick: Oilers ML (-260 | Play to -275)
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