NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Oilers vs. Jets (Nov. 16)
Darcy Finley/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck.
Oilers vs. Jets Odds
|Time||8 p.m. ET|
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The Edmonton Oilers wrap up a five-game road trip Tuesday when they face the Winnipeg Jets.
Edmonton has wins against the Boston Bruins and St. Louis Blues, but suffered defeats in games versus the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres.
This is the first night of a home-and-home series between these teams, and the Oilers will have to shake some questionable metrics if they hope to end their time away from home with a winning record.
The floodgates will open for the Jets, and that’s likely going to come at the Oilers’ expense, who are in the midst of a correction phase. Mikko Koskinen has overachieved relative to career norms, analogous to Edmonton’s early-season hot streak.
Koskinen has stepped into the primary goaltender role after Mike Smith went down with an injury. The Finnish standout played exceptionally well over his first handful of games, but has come back down to earth since then.
Koskinen stopped 93.4% of shots through his first seven appearances, but has followed that up by denying just 87.1% over his last three outings. The 31-year-old remains ahead of his career averages and will continue his regression over his coming games.
As a team, the Oilers are likely spiraling towards a correction phase. Edmonton has been outplayed at 5-on-5 in four of their past seven, but has won five of those games. Edmonton is being propped up by their otherworldly power play metrics, which has resulted in the highest PDO in the league.
The Oilers have decreased their quality chances in each of the past three games, but have yet to see the diminished output. Goals could be harder to come by for the Oilers as output falls to match production.
The Jets have two substantive advantages entering this contest. First, they’re at the tail end of a lengthy home stretch and have a distinctive scheduling edge. Second, and most importantly, Winnipeg has strong underlying metrics, which lend themselves to sustained success.
After starting the season with six of their first eight games on the road, the Jets have settled in for seven in a row at home since the start of the month. The Jets, who are 4-1-1 during that stretch, are set up for another strong showing against the Oilers.
Winnipeg has posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% at five-on-five in four of their past six games, but it’s their production metrics across all strengths that put them on another level. The Jets are attempting 14.3 high-danger and 31.8 scoring chances per game during their homestand.
Despite those gaudy metrics working in their favor, Winnipeg has underachieved relative to expected output in three of its past four. That said, the floodgates are going to open for the Jets.
Jets vs. Oilers Pick
These teams will face off for two consecutive games, but the Jets have distinct advantages in the first showdown. They should use home ice to neutralize the Oilers’ attack, but should also have some luck in finding the back of the net.
This line will shift in favor of the Jets as we approach puck drop, and rightfully so, but get on them early to maximize your closing line value.
Pick: Jets ML (-105)