NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Predators vs. Kraken (November 8)
John Russell/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Nashville Predators alternate captain Filip Forsberg
Predators vs. Kraken Odds
|Over/Under||6 (-114 / -106)|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.|
The Preds are firing on all cylinders, scoring 12 goals across the first three contests; however, they’re taking on a Kraken squad that has held opponents to two or fewer goals in three of their past four outings.
Still, at near-plus money, Nashville is worth the investment in this Western Conference clash. Let’s look at why.
Scoring No Problem for Nashville Predators
Making the first change hasn’t hampered the Predators through the first three games of their roadie. Nashville has outplayed two of three opponents, posting a cumulative 51.9% expected goals-for rating at five-on-five. That has elevated their season-long average to 51.3%, putting the Preds in the league’s top half analytically.
Moreover, we’re anticipating sustained success from the Central Division contenders over their coming games, as Nashville’s actual goals-for rating remains below expected. Most of their success is attributed to the Predators’ dynamic offense, which should flourish in the Pacific Northwest. Goal scoring has come naturally recently, and they have the underlying metrics to support ongoing success.
The Preds have excelled at creating chances, particularly over their past six games. Over that stretch, the Filip Forsberg-led Predators are averaging 9.5 high-danger and 25.2 scoring chances, above their season-long averages of 8.4 and 22.1, respectively.
More impressively, Nashville has surpassed 25 scoring and 10 high-danger opportunities in four of their previous six, showing no signs of slowing down.
Return to Reality for Seattle Kraken?
Four straight wins is the longest winning streak in franchise history for the Kraken, though their success is built on untenable ground. Seattle has been outplayed in all four contests, usually by a substantive margin. The Kraken’s expected goals-for rating is 41.0% across those four games, with game scores below 40.3% in three of the four.
The Kraken owe their success to Martin Jones and Joey Daccord, who are compensating for Seattle’s ineffective defensive zone coverage. The NHL’s newest franchise has allowed 10 or more quality chances in three of four, highlighting their defensive lapses.
Those will come back to haunt the Kraken against the Predators, who are scoring on 14.1% of shots and creating a surplus of opportunities. Additionally, Jones’ save percentage has climbed to an unsustainable 96.6 % over his last three starts, a substantial improvement from his 90.1% mark on the season.
Regression isn’t limited to goaltending, however. As a team, the Kraken are overachieving relative to their expected values. Their eighth-ranked actual goals-for percentage of 55.6% exceeds the 51.9% expected value. Further, they’ve been out-chanced in quality opportunities in every game of their winning streak. All of which points to impending collapse.
Predators vs. Kraken Pick
The Kraken have struck an unsustainable balance between metrics and outcome, setting the stage for a downturn in wins. Seattle is giving up an alarming amount of chances across its winning striking, playing into the strengths of the visiting Preds.
Based on our analysis, the wrong team is favored in this one, and backing Nashville at -104 or better is the play to make.