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Red Wings vs. Wild Odds & Picks: Why to Bet Monday’s Over/Under (Feb. 14)

Red Wings vs. Wild Odds & Picks: Why to Bet Monday’s Over/Under (Feb. 14) article feature image
Credit:

Via Bruce Kluckhohn/Getty Images. Pictured: Kirill Kaprizov.

  • The Red Wings head to Minnesota to face the Wild after winning three of their last four games.
  • The Wild are home favorites as their offense remains one of the elite units in the league.
  • Jacob McKenna breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Red Wings vs. Wild Odds

Red Wings Odds +190
Wild Odds -235
Over/Under 6 (-120 / +100)
Time 8 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

A Central Division matchup will kick off the week when the Detroit Red Wings travel to Minnesota to take on the Wild.

Detroit enters this matchup with a 22-21-6 record and has had a relatively average season, but they have played some good hockey lately as the Wings have won three of their last four games.

The Wild have played great hockey recently as well, winning eight of their last 10 games and now have 29 total wins on the season.

Both of these teams come into this matchup with some momentum, but Detroit has had its fair share of struggles on the road this season. Will they push those struggles to the side and flip the script, or will we see the Wild continue to dominate on their home ice?

Red Wings Looking for Improved Road Play

The Detroit Red Wings have won just seven of their 22 road games this season, a record that reflects their poor play on opponent ice.

Their defensive ability, or lack thereof, is a large reason why the Wings find themselves often playing from behind while on the road this season. According to Natural Stat Trick, Detroit has 2.68 Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) while they are the road team, which is slightly higher than its season average of 2.57.

Furthermore, the Red Wings surrender 13.6 High Danger Chances per 60 minutes (HDCA/60) in 5-on-5 situations while on the road, which is the third-most in the NHL. Detroit is giving its opponents tons of looks from in close, which is something that needs to be fixed for this game against a great offensive attack in Minnesota.

Their level of play on the defensive end of the ice is not up to par, and their offense often fails to make up for those shortcomings.

Entering this matchup, Detroit has just 2.22 Expected Goals For per 60 minutes (xGF/60) while on the road this season, a number that’s is far below their season average of 2.38.

The Red Wings are an entirely different hockey team when playing on the road, and if they want to compete with the Wild in this one, they will need to patch up several holes in their play.


Will the Wild Offense Stay Hot?

The Wild have been a tough team to stop in most aspects of the game this season, which is why Minnesota finds themselves in second place in the Central Division with 61 points.

This has been one of the best scoring attacks in the NHL all season, averaging 3.24 goals per 60 minutes since the season began. That is the second-most in the NHL behind only the Panthers, which goes to show that this team can score on just about anyone.

That level of scoring has been on display as of late as well and has actually picked up in pace.

In their most recent 10 games, the Wild are averaging 4.2 goals per game while managing to put up an average of 33.7 Shots on Goal per game in that same stretch, both of which are above their season averages and rank near the top of the NHL.

That offense is backed by a defense that has an average of just 2.28 xGA/60 in 5-on-5 situations this season, as well as a good goalie in Cam Talbot. Talbot is expected to get the start in this one, and in 5-on-5 this season he has and SV % of .921 but just -4.2 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx).

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Red Wings-Wings Pick

Even though the Red Wings have made some great improvements this season, there is still a large gap between them and their divisional rivals.

Detroit has been shaky on the defensive end of the ice all season, which is something that worries me greatly entering the matchup. The Wild have exposed many teams and have taken advantage of poor defenses all year, as shown by their league-leading 4.27 goals for per 60 minutes in 5-on-5 situations on their home ice.

That has led to both Minnesota and Detroit seeing some high scoring totals as of late, with the Wild having at least six combined goals in six of their last 10 games, and the Red Wings reaching that same total in five of their last seven. Given those recent trends and the momentum that both teams have, I think this will be another game in which there are plenty of goals.

Pick: Total Over 6 (-110)

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