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NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs. Panthers (Dec. 14)

NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Senators vs. Panthers (Dec. 14) article feature image
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Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Sergei Bobrovsky

Senators vs. Panthers Odds

Senators Odds +235
Panthers Odds -300
Over/Under 6.5
Time 7 p.m. ET
TV ESPN+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NHL Odds here.

The Florida Panthers head back to the friendly confines of FLA Live Pavilion on Tuesday for a showdown with the lowly Ottawa Senators.

The Senators are rolling with four wins in their past five games. Ottawa has defeated some of the NHL’s best in that span, most recently a stunning 4-0 over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday.

Florida is coming off a 1-1-1 road trip out west and most recently lost to the Colorado Avalanche 3-2 on Sunday in a hotly contested game. The Panthers are 18-5-4, with eight of their nine losses coming on the road.

Senators Have Been Better, But Still Rate Poorly

The Senators have recently won games against brand-name opposition, including Tampa Bay, Colorado and Carolina. Still, Ottawa is 8-16-1 and sits in seventh place in the Atlantic Division with 17 points in 25 games, leading only the Montreal Canadiens.

The Senators have the fourth-worst Goals-For percentage (41.5), fifth-worst Expected Goals-For percentage (45.2) and third-worst Team Save percentage (.891), according to Natural Stat Trick. Goalie Anton Forsberg has won four straight starts but has a minus-2.38 Goals Saved Above Average this season.

Ottawa has won two straight road games but has been particularly bad away from home, with just a 3-7-1 record away from the Canadian Tire Centre. The Senators have been outscored 42-27 in road games this season and have the worst Corsi-For percentage (41.5) and third-worst Expected Goals-For percentage (39.7) in road games.

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Panthers Have Been Dominant At Home

As bad as the Senators have been in road games is as good as Florida has been at home this season. The Panthers won their first 11 games in Sunrise this season and are 14-1 in home games — oddly enough losing their lone home affair to the expansion Seattle Kraken.

Unsurprisingly, the Panthers have the best goal differential in the NHL, 66-38, with the fifth-best Corsi-For percentage (55.4), sixth-best Expected Goals-For percentage (56.2) and fourth-best PDO (1.036) in home games this season.

Sergei Bobrovsky has been among the best goalies in the NHL, with the eighth-best High-Danger Save percentage in the league (.858). Florida has the fifth-best High Danger Save percentage (.862) at 5-on-5 in the game.

Florida is tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs atop the Atlantic Division, due largely to its dominant possession metrics in both home and road games. The Panthers lead the NHL in Corsi-For percentage (55.4) and have the second-best Expected Goals-for percentage (55.6) in all games.

Senators vs. Panthers Pick

Ottawa has played better, but if you’re not going to take the puck-line when the best home team in the league plays one of the worst, when will you?

Taking an alternate spread feels like too much of a gamble — Panthers -2.5 is just +130, according to DraftKings — but Panthers puck line is the way to go.

Pick: Florida -1.5 (-130)

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