NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Stars vs Canucks (Thursday, March 28)
Joe Pavelski #16 of the Dallas Stars is congratulated by Jason Robertson #21 and Roope Hintz #24
Stars vs. Canucks Odds
| Stars Odds | -108 |
| Canucks Odds | -113 |
| Over / Under | 6 -112 / -109 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Dallas Stars vs. Vancouver Canucks on Thursday, March 28 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
In what might be a preview of the Western Conference Finals, Vancouver and Dallas are set to face each other for the third and final time in the season series.
Each squad narrowly won one of the first two contests, so we'll need to examine these teams closely while previewing the upcoming contest to see if either has an advantage we can latch onto for tonight's Stars vs. Canucks prediction.
While Vancouver has a secondary scorer who is hot, the Stars have a far more impactful player rolling. Jake Oettinger has won his past three starts while saving 69 of 75 shots (.920 save percentage).
It's a nice change of pace for the 25-year-old, who has a well-earned reputation as an elite goaltender but has struggled in 2023-24 with a 2.97 GAA and an .898 save percentage in 46 appearances. The Stars' elite offense allows them to manufacture wins even when Oettinger isn't at his best – the goaltender still has a 28-13-4 record this campaign despite his struggles – but they're certainly a far more dangerous team when he's living up to expectations.
Oettinger's hot streak comes with an asterisk, though. Two of those victories came against the lowly Coyotes and the other was against Pittsburgh, which has been in a state of complete collapse. T
The Canucks figure to be a far tougher test – and one he's yet to rise to the occasion of. In his four career games against Vancouver, Oettinger is 0-3-1 with a 4.07 GAA and an .857 save percentage. To be fair, he wasn't the problem in his last meeting against the Canucks on Nov. 4; the goaltender stopped 26 of 28 shots in that contest, but Demko earned a 27-save shutout at the other end.
Still, it's fair to say Oettinger is somewhat of an X factor.
At least the Stars should be able to count on their offense to provide Oettinger with the support they failed to give him in November. Not only is Demko not a factor this time, but the Stars' attack is red hot. They have scored at least four goals in each of their last five games, for a total of 23 in that span. The Stars have also been the strongest team offensively since Feb. 29, averaging 4.25 goals per game over 12 contests.
It helps that Dallas' offense is almost entirely healthy. Tyler Seguin (22 goals, 49 points) did miss Tuesday's 6-3 win over San Jose, but that was just to allow him to rest, so he should be back tonight.
Right off the bat, there is one factor with the potential to substantially hurt the Canucks: Injuries. Thatcher Demko (knee) will miss Thursday's contest while Elias Lindholm (undisclosed) might be unavailable as well.
Starting with Demko, his absence is a huge drawback. The starting goaltender has a 34-13-2 record, 2.47 GAA and .917 save percentage in 49 games this campaign. Vancouver has strengths beyond Demko, but he's what makes this squad a complete team.
Without him, Vancouver is forced to lean on Casey DeSmith, who is a significant downgrade with an 11-6-6 record, 2.73 GAA and .897 save percentage across 25 outings. That save percentage is especially bad.
The Canucks have taken the pressure off DeSmith by limiting the competition to 24 or fewer shots in each of their last five games, but will they be able to do the same against the Stars, who rank second offensively with 3.66 goals per game?
The silver lining is Vancouver has averaged 3.49 goals, fifth in the NHL, so even if DeSmith can't hold back the Stars, then the Canucks still have the potential to brute force their way to victory.
Missing Lindholm (14 goals, 41 points) would complicate that somewhat, but Vancouver will still be able to deploy its core of J.T. Miller (34 goals, 91 points), Elias Pettersson (33 goals, 84 points), Brock Boeser (37 goals, 68 points) and offensive defenseman Quinn Hughes (13 goals, 81 points).
The Canucks' scoring depth isn't impressive, but it could get some extra help from Conor Garland, who is hot with three goals and seven points in his last eight games.
Stars vs. Canucks
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Canucks do at least have the home-ice advantage and boast a 24-8-4 record in Vancouver, but that's counterbalanced by the Stars being an amazing road team at 23-9-5.
In the end, I believe the defining factor in this game will be the absence of Demko. These two teams are pretty evenly matched when fully healthy, but the Canucks missing their starting goaltender is a significant hurdle to overcome.
For that reason, I'm recommending Dallas on the moneyline.
You could also give some consideration to the Over 6.5, which does offer a better potential payout than taking the Stars. However, Oettinger has been solid enough lately – even if the competition hasn't been the greatest – to shy me away from fully endorsing that bet.
Pick: Dallas Stars (-108 at BetRivers) | Play down to -115
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