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2018-19 Premier League Season Betting Reset: Will A Big Underdog Ever Win?

Nov 17, 2018 9:50 AM EST
  • The Premier League has played 12 of 38 matchweeks so far, and we've provided updates on everything that's happened so far.
  • Manchester City (-350) are the clear favorites to win the title while Huddersfield (-225), Cardiff (-225) and Fulham (-175) are expected to be relegated.

We’re nearly one-third into the 2018-19 Premier League season and with the International Break looming, it’s a great time to update this year’s biggest storylines, betting trends, profitable teams and more.

Here’s a look at the current table:

Season Trends

  • Draws had been struggling all season long until Week 12 where they netted more than 10 total units.
  • Road teams have been getting crushed on the moneyline, mostly due to the fact that huge favorites keep winning. Favorites have won 73 matches for +6.31 units.
  • There still hasn’t been a big upset as teams closing +500 or higher on the moneyline are winless in 57 matches.

Most Profitable Clubs (Moneyline)

Least Profitable Bets (Moneyline)

  • Draws -19.13 units
  • Fulham -9.75 u
  • Huddersfield -9.65 u
  • Southampton -8.87 u


Title Odds

  • Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea are all still undefeated through 12 league matches, however City are the clear favorites (-350) to repeat as champions.
  • Liverpool have the next best odds at +425, right around their preseason chances.
  • Manchester United have increased from 8/1 to 200/1 since the preseason, and manager Jose Mourinho is still clinging to his job.

Relegation Odds

  • Cardiff City were fully expected to be relegated before the season and they’ve only solidified that into November. They’re now -225 co-favorites with Huddersfield Town.
  • Fulham were supposed to be a surprise team in the EPL this year, but they’ve struggled mightily. They were the first club to sack their manager (Slaviša Jokanović) and replaced him with Claudio Ranieri, who won the EPL title with Leicester City in 2015-16. The Cottagers are now -175 to be relegated with Cardiff and Huddersfield.
  • Leicester City sadly lost their owner, Vichai Srivaddhanaprabha, to a fatal helicopter crash on October 27th right outside the King Power Stadium. The Foxes have drawn, 0-0, and won, 1-0, in the two games since.
  • Bournemouth and Watford, two of the most profitable clubs on the season, appear to be safe in the Premier League for at least another year.

Betting Systems

Our Bet Labs database allows users to quickly find profitable betting strategies based on historical data.

A system we pointed out earlier in the year focused on taking overs with big home underdogs, and that’s continued to do well this season, going 6-3 for +2.44 units.

Historically, this system is up more than +30 units since we started getting EPL data five years ago.

Another strong system, which has under-performed so far this season, is to take draws with low totals. Despite the slow start to the season, the strategy has earned nearly +35 units on the moneyline and an incredible 36% ROI all-time.

The theory is simple and direct: bet on draws that close below +225 when the total is at 2 goals. Unfortunately this season we’ve seen a number of draws crushed by late goals, but that surely won’t be the norm all season.

There are still 7+ months left in season which will conclude on May 19, 2019. Bettors should continue to maintain patience as there are plenty of games remaining.

Credit:

ESPN.com. Pictured: Manchester City’s David Silva fending off Manchester United’s Anders Herrera.

Follow Dan McGuire on Twitter
@ArsenalDMC

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