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2022 FIFA World Cup Preview, Odds: Long Shot Bets Worth Making

2022 FIFA World Cup Preview, Odds: Long Shot Bets Worth Making article feature image
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Sebastien Frej/Getty. Pictured: Darwin Nunez.

  • Looking for some plays at juicy numbers to make ahead of the World Cup?
  • Our experts break down their best long shot bets.
  • Read on for a host of best bets ranging from +1000 to +5000 and beyond.

We are three days away from the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and that means you have just enough time to get in your long shot bets before the tournament kicks off. 

Below, our experts detail their best with long odds that may be worth a sprinkle.

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World Cup Long Shot Bets

Morocco to Win Group F (+1000)

Anthony Dabbundo: Belgium and Croatia are two teams that had mediocre underlying performances at the Euros last summer, and their age profiles suggest they’re both at the end of their golden generations.

These are teams I typically look to play against in these tournaments, and they’re both in the same group. There are two teams that could be the beneficiaries of that — Morocco and Canada. Canada are inexperienced and while they could make noise in Qatar, I prefer the talent and experience of Morocco. They had the best underlying numbers in African World Cup Qualifying and welcome back stars Hakim Ziyech and Noussair Mazaroui to the international team.

There aren’t many holes in this Morocco lineup. Their two fullbacks are as good as any in the tournament with Achraf Hakimi and Mazaroui. They have a reliable target man in Youssef En-Nesyri and the supplementary wide players to get the crosses into him.

The one question could be the midfield, but Morocco’s back four should be one of the best of the non-international giants. Morocco are one of the more dangerous lower seeds and got partnered with two of the more vulnerable top seeds. They’re worth a flier to win this group.

Lowest Scoring Team – Iran (+1400)

Brett Pund: Politics can play a role in what happens at global sports competitions, and I feel that Iran is the country this year that could be hindered by things going on off the field at this World Cup.

Multiple players have come out in support of the protests sweeping their country over women’s rights, and there has been opposition to that by high officials in the Iranian government. This is also the same team that fired its manager in July and will have very limited time to get acclimated with former manager Carlos Queiroz.

One key player that has been outspoken about the protests has been striker Sardar Azmoun, who would be a key loss if he not allowed to play or not playing at his best. The Bayer Leverkusen man led the country with 10 goals to go along with four assists during qualifying, and he also may be carrying an injury that he picked up while playing in Germany.

Iran also did not get a favorable draw, facing squads that are known to be very stout defensively in Wales and England. No points in those first two games would essentially eliminate them by the time they face the United States.

With everything going on in their country, how can they be expect to be fully focused in a game where they have no chance of qualifying for the knockout rounds?

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Denmark Outright (+3000)

BJ Cunningham: Denmark going to the Euro semifinals was absolutely not a fluke because this is a team that has a ton of talent, has been playing together for a long time, and is well drilled in what they want to do tactically.

The reason the Danes are so good is because of how good they are defensively. Kasper Schmeichel is in goal and their backline of Joakim Maele, Andreas Christiansen, Joakim Anderson and Rasmus Kristensen all have a ton of experience playing at the top level in Europe. Throughout World Cup Qualifying & the Euros Denmark only allowed 0.88 xG per 90 minutes.

This allows the Denmark front line to press high and put a lot of pressure on their opponents. At the Euros they led the tournament in high turnovers at 56 and had a PPDA of 12.9, which was fifth best in the tournament.

In possession, Denmark typically like to create numerical overloads in the center of the pitch to force the opponent to play more compact, which allows Maele and Kristensen to get forward in the attack and supply a lot of crosses into the box.

If Denmark finishes first in Group D, they will take on second place in Group C (Mexico or Poland) and then likely a date with England in the quarters, who they took to the brink at the Euros. The bottom half of bracket opens up and they would avoid Argentina, Brazil, Spain and the Netherlands most likely until the final, so I like this price.

Uruguay Outright (+5000)

Michael Leboff: Over the past 15 years, Uruguay had a very distinct identity. Under Oscar Tabarez, La Celeste were a terrific defensive side that earned results by hanging around in games and then relying on stars like Diego Forlan, Luiz Suarez or Edinson Cavani to provide some magic.

Tabarez’s 15-year stint is now over, but that same defensive solidity is still a hallmark of Uruguay, only this time around La Celeste have more offensive firepower with Darwin Nunez, Fede Valverde, Rodrigo Bentancur, Suarez and Cavani.

Group H is very manageable and if Uruguay can top the set, they’d have a wide open path to the semifinals. This team ticks every box you want in a dark horse.

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