Tigers vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - September 30, 2025

Also grabbing the F5 under. Both of these offenses are struggling. Skubal and Williams have dominated them multiple times.

From John Stetson: Both of these SPs seeing the opposing team for their 3rd consecutive start and while it's tough to bet against Skubal, it's almost just as difficult to expect Detroit to do much against Gavin Williams. Over their L2 meetings, Williams has given up just 7 hits and 2 runs over 11 innings of work, but those numbers only downplay his dominance. Put another way, he's faced 44 hitters over those 2 outings and has struckout 21 (47.7% K rate). His dominance of this Tigers lineup isn't limited to those L2 starts either. He's faced this DET team 6 times since last July and has combined to post a 1.35 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 1.86 FIP, and an insane 38.9% K rate. While he did struggle in his lone playoff appearance last season against the Yankees (2.1 IP, 3 runs), he's coming into this game in significantly better form and he gets a matchup he's dominated. This DET offense also hasn't been doing much in general to lead me to believe they breakout here. Over the L14 days they've posted a 73 wRC+ v. RHP and scored a total of just 8 runs over the weekend in Boston. At the end of the day, runs should be incredibly difficult to come by for each of these offenses early in this game and given we get paid for a tie through 5, I think there's some value at this price.

MLB Playoffs are one of the few times I don’t mind laying a little juice when the value is there. I project the Tigers as -187 favorites with a 65.1% chance to win, while the current line of -160 implies just a 61.5% chance. This gives us a 3.6% edge. I think we’re getting a slightly discounted price because of Detroit’s late-season struggles. This is a spot I want to back them. I’m taking the Tigers to win Game 1 at -160.

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@Zerillo https://myaction.app/4NoCEbKu4Wb

Bet to +110 - on DET series price to -120

Detroit needs at least 6 innings from Skubal in Game 1. Their bullpen took a step back this season, so they can’t rely as much on the relievers like they did in the 2024 playoffs. Skubal went 6+ innings in all 4 regular season starts against the Guardians. He allowed a total of 2 ERs in those outings. Skubal went 6+ innings in all 3 postseason starts last year, including 2 against the Guardians. Cleveland was 27th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. LHP over the final 2 months of the season.