It's Sunday, and we have an exciting 14-game slate of Major League Baseball ahead of us.
Our staff of baseball bettors has picks from several of today's games.
Read on for our 5 MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:15 PM | |
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 1:40 PM | |
  | 3:10 PM | |
  | 4:05 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tony Sartori's Marlins vs Nationals Over/Under Bet
By Tony Sartori
The Miami Marlins hand the ball to right-hander Janson Junk, who should serve as a good fade candidate. Junk has struggled at the MLB level, and 2026 has followed that trend.
Through 20 appearances, the right-hander is 6-8 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor.
Slated to start in this contest for the Nationals, Andrew Alvarez carries a 2-6 record, a 3.72 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP into this matchup. His underlying metrics are even worse.
This season, Alvarez owns a 4.59 xERA and a .259 xBA. He also ranks in the bottom third of the league in average exit velocity, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Both starting pitchers are poor, and the Nationals boast one of baseball's best lineups. The main threat to the over is Miami's run production, but there are two reasons to be optimistic about its ability to contribute.
First, Alvarez is, analytically, one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Second, the Marlins can manufacture runs through small ball.
This season, Miami ranks 11th in hits per game, sixth in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage and 11th in OPS.
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Pick: Over 8.5 (-125 or Better)
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Sean Paul's Red Sox vs Yankees ML Pick
By Sean Paul
The Red Sox will give the ball to their "Ace" Ranger Suarez in the series finale. He's had a solid debut year with the Red Sox, posting a 3.35 ERA, a 3.61 xERA, and a 2.96 FIP.
One interesting tidbit about Suarez is that he isn't giving Boston much length. He hasn't gone more than 5 1/3 innings in any of his five starts since returning from the IL. Suarez is still one of the league's best at generating weak contact, ranking in the 87th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.
Tasked with holding down this Boston lineup is Will Warren, who got more life in this Yankees rotation due to injuries. First, Max Fried went on the IL for two weeks, and he returned on Saturday. Then, Ryan Weathers went on the IL with an unspecified timetable, which means Warren is there to stay.
Warren is solid, but not great. He has a 4.39 ERA with a 4.60 xERA and a 4.30 FIP. The issue for Warren is home run woes; he gives up an astounding 1.42 HR/9 and gave up four in his last three starts.
I see the vision for the Yankees offense getting on track, even with Aaron Judge still out.
The line gives the Red Sox a slight edge on the road, but I want to take the Yankees in the Bronx. The gap between these two clubs isn't very big — and the oddsmakers must be ignoring Suarez's recent outings because he's priced like an ace.
With New York's lefty-heavy lineup and reverse splits, I could see it succeeding against Boston's highly-paid southpaw.
Take the underdog at home.
Read Paul's full Red Sox-Yankees breakdown here:
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Pick: Yankees ML (-110 or Better)
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BARTOLO's Dodgers vs Tigers Breakdown
Our own Sean Zerillo projects some value on the total in this game.
If you’d like to dive deeper into this matchup, I recommend checking out BARTOLO, our new PRO baseball betting tool that gives our PRO subscribers access to all the live data we use to project MLB games each day.
Here’s a sneak peek at what BARTOLO provides for this game:
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Pick: Over 7.5 (-102 or Better)
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Doug Ziefel's Astros vs Mets K Prop
By Doug Ziefel
It's safe to say that things have not gone to plan for Astros' starter Ethan Pecko through the first two outings of his big league career. Pecko has struggled mightily with command, walking seven batters over eight innings and posting a 7.88 ERA with few positive regression indicators.
However, what we've seen from Pecko in the big leagues is nowhere near the profile he displayed in the minors. Pecko in Triple-A this season held a 4.57 ERA but racked up 86 strikeouts and just 28 walks in nearly 83 innings of work.
The stuff is there when it's been commanded, as his Stuff+ sits at 101. It would appear that when his command dials in, Pecko has the potential to strike out plenty of hitters at the big-league level, and his recent struggles have set the bar too low this afternoon.
The Mets are far from an intimidating lineup against righties, holding at a team wRC+ of 99. While New York has shown they can flash power, especially with Juan Soto back in the lineup, there is plenty of swing-and-miss as they have below-average swinging strike and chase rates.
So, buy-low on Pecko this afternoon.
Read Ziefel's full Astros-Mets breakdown here:
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Pick: Ethan Pecko Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-106 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Orioles vs Athletics 3 Picks
By Ryan Minion
think Lawrence Butler has a great matchup against Bassitt and is poised to take advantage.
Despite a tough start to the season, Butler has started to find his stride at the plate, having recorded a hit in 14 of his past 15 games.
There’s also the classic lefty-on-righty matchup issue for Bassitt — he’s allowed a .405 wOBA to Southpaws this season, while Butler has a whopping .983 OPS and 171 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the month of August.
Even better, Butler is 4-for-9 lifetime off Bassitt with a whopping 99 MPH average exit velocity on batted balls.
I expect a massive day for Law Dog on Saturday and am betting him every which way.
Read Minion's The Leadoff here:
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Picks:
- Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-123)
- Lawrence Butler Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
- Lawrence Butler Over 0.5 Doubles (+408)
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