Chris Gutierrez vs. Batgerel Danaa UFC Odds, Pick & Prediction: Target This Prop and Live Bet Saturday Night (March 26)
Alex Menendez/Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Batgerel Danaa.
- Two rising UFC Bantamweights will go head-to-head tonight in Columbus Ohio when Chris Gutierrez and Batgerel Danaa face off Saturday night.
- Both men are riding impressive unbeaten streaks, though books are giving Batgerel (-140 odds) the slight edge.
- Billy Ward explains why this fight sets up as a potential live betting opportunity.
Chris Gutierrez vs. Batgerel Danaa Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-135 / +105)|
|Venue||Nationwide Arena, Columbus, OH|
|Time||5:30 p.m. ET|
|Channel||ESPN / ESPN+|
|Odds as of Saturday and via Caesars.|
Surging bantamweights Chris “El Guapo” Gutierrez and Batgerel Danaa look to keep their win streaks alive as they face off on the prelims of UFC Fight Night Columbus.
This should be an exciting bout between two powerful strikers. Both men have little interest in takedowns, though their striking styles differ dramatically.
Gutierrez takes a more measured approach, throwing less overall volume but with strong leg kicks. Batgerel prefers to overwhelm his opponents with volume. Both fighters have strong defense though, so will either be able to land a finishing blow?
Below, we’ll dive into all the betting angles for this bout, including live betting opportunities.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||13:23||5:13|
|Weight (pounds)||135 lbs.||135 lbs.|
|Date of birth||4/22/91||7/4/1989|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||4.63||6.28|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||2.5||2.73|
|Take Down Avg.||0.48||0.0|
Gutierrez is riding a six-fight unbeaten streak (one draw), with four decisions and one stoppage victory. That win, naturally, came via leg kicks, which we often see in the UFC — Gutierrez’s stoppage via kicks was just the 11th in history.
Beyond the stoppage chance though, leg kicks can have a significant impact on how the fight plays out. Taking out a fighters front leg limits their movement and saps their power over time.
Of course, time hasn’t mattered much in Batgerel’s recent fights. He’s riding three straight first round wins, all by knockout. He throws impressive volume, swarming his opponents with strikes and hoping one or two make it through, making “Storm” an appropriate nickname for Batgerel.
He also features impressive striking defense, bolstered by a 70-inch reach despite standing just 5-foot-7. Targeting shorter fighters with longer reach is one of my favorite MMA trends.
I first discovered it in the wonderful book “Fightnomics” but it makes intuitive sense as well. Shorter fighters can carry more muscle for a given weight class. Generally the tradeoff is that their reach is a disadvantage. However, in situations like this, you get the best of both worlds.
I do see an edge for Gutierrez if he chooses to wrestle, though. Batgerel has shown poor takedown defense — albeit in a fairly small sample size.
Gutierrez vs. Batgerel Pick
We’ve seen some significant line movement throughout the week, with Batgerel opening at -160 or so before going as low as -135 on DraftKings. While I think that’s gone slightly too far (and would be comfortable with a Batgerel moneyline bet) that’s not how I’m playing this one.
Batgerel’s best chance to win this fight are in the early moments. Not so much due to a lack of cardio — though he did lose his only UFC bout to exit the first round — but because of the leg kicks of Gutierrez, which will surely pay dividends as the fight wears on.
Batgerel in Round 1 is +430, and Round 2 is +600 both at FanDuel. Those are my favorite pre-fight bets, but I prefer the Round 1.
However, the live markets really intrigue me here. It’s quite possible Batgerel wins Round 1, but still eats a few leg kicks along the way. In that case, look to bet “El Guapo” after the first frame.
Be sure to line shop a few different sportsbooks as well. It’s always tricky for books to judge MMA fights, but this one in particular stands out. The effect of leg kicks are notoriously hard to accurately judge, so we could see a wide range of lines offered between rounds.
The Pick: Batgerel Danaa Wins in Round 1 (+430 FanDuel) | Live Bet Chris Gutierrez After Round 1