UFC 264 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Niko Price vs. Michel Pereira Preview (Saturday, July 10)

UFC 264 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Niko Price vs. Michel Pereira Preview (Saturday, July 10) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: (L-R) UFC opponents Niko Price and Michel Pereira.

  • In what should be a highly entertaining prelim matchup, Niko Price will take on Michel Pereira.
  • Both welterweights present unique offensive styles, although Pereira has won two straight while Price is winless in his last two.
  • Check out Sean Zerillo's analysis of the fight, as well as his best bet, below.

Niko Price vs. Michel Pereira Odds

Price Odds
+141
Pereira Odds
-177
Over/Under
1.5 (-182 / +135)
Venue
T-Mobile Arena
Time
Approx. 9 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

Niko Price and Michel Pereira will face off on the UFC 264 prelims in a matchup that could easily win Fight of Night. Aside from the main event, this might be my favorite fight on the card because of the potential action it could create.

Price came away with a majority draw his last time out against Donald Cerrone, but the fight was later ruled a no contest to a failed drug test. Pereira enters this fight off back-to-back wins in late 2020.

Below I preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate.

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Tale of the Tape

Price Pereira
Record 14-4 (2 NC) 25-11 (2 NC)
Avg. Fight Time 7:02 11:55
Height 6’0″ 6’1″
Weight (pounds) 169.5 lbs. 170.5 lbs.
Reach (inches) 76″ 73″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 9/29/89 10/6/93
Sig Strikes Per Min 5.33 3.74
SS Accuracy 41% 54%
SS Absorbed Per Min 5.83 2.84
SS Defense 41% 54%
Take Down Avg 0.89 1.76
TD Acc 22% 70%
TD Def 72% 100%
Submission Avg 0.9 0.5

Price is a balls-to-the-wall action fighter, landing and absorbing more than 11 significant strikes combined per minute (-0.50 strike differential). In contrast, Pereira (+0.90 strike differential) is happy to engage in high-volume wars or pick away his opponents from a distance with wildly creative attacks.

The Brazilian’s power and creativity seem to slow the pressure from his opponents, and Price does have the reach advantage (+3 inches) in this fight, so Michel could struggle to win the range game.

Pereira should have the grappling edge (1.76 takedowns per 15 minutes, 70% accuracy) against Price (72% takedown defense), and I think he’s both the more talented and more calculated fighter, especially of late. Pereira’s grappling and power could slow the pace of this fight to a crawl.

Prices vs. Pereira Pick

I suppose there is slight value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected -186, listed -177) or on Pereira to win inside the distance (projected +143, listed +150).

Still, there’s not enough of an edge to make a play, and it’s difficult to determine how this matchup might play out. If Pereira leans on his grappling, I think he finds a submission or secures a one-sided decision, but he’s prone to letting his opponents hang around late into fights.

Since he’s generally untrustworthy, I see no reason to force a play.

The Pick: No Bet

Be sure to check out my projections and bets for the rest of the UFC 264 card here.

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