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Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry Betting Odds, UFC 270 Pick & Prediction: The Prop to Bet in Featured Prelim

Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry Betting Odds, UFC 270 Pick & Prediction: The Prop to Bet in Featured Prelim article feature image
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Mauro Pimentel/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC fighter Raoni Barcelos.

  • Raoni Barcelos will looks to get back into the win column when he faces journeyman Victor Henry at UFC 270.
  • Barcelos is a massive favorite (-500) in Saturday night's featured prelim but Sean Zerillo is more interested in a plus-money prop for this fight.
  • He gives his expert fight analysis and explains his betting strategy below.

Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry Odds

Barcelos Odds
-500
Henry Odds
+350
Over/Under
2.5 (-110 / -120)
Venue
Honda Center, Anaheim, CA
Time
Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Odds as of Saturday and via PointsBet.

Rising Bantamweight challenger Raoni Barcelos will face a newcomer to the promotion, Victor Henry, in the featured prelim bout of UFC 270. The two fighters were slated to meet in December, but the fight was reportedly moved after Henry tested positive for COVID.

Henry is new to the UFC, but a veteran in the sport with plenty professional bouts under his belt. Barcelos is seeking to bounce back after his first loss in the UFC — a majority decision against Timur Valiev.

Below I preview how these fighters stack up and which side has betting value in this matchup. For more analysis on the rest of the card, you can check out my projections for the entire slate here.

Tale of the Tape

Barcelos Henry
Record 16-2 21-5
Avg. Fight Time 12:35 0:0
Height 5’7″ 5’7″
Weight (pounds) 135 lbs. 135 lbs.
Reach (inches) 67″ 68″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 5/1/87 5/4/87
Sig Strikes Per Min 5.39 0.0
SS Accuracy 52% 0%
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.36 0.0
SS Defense 66% 0%
Take Down Avg 1.79 0.0
TD Acc 56% 0%
TD Def 92% 0%
Submission Avg 0.6 0.0

Barcelos can compete with almost any fighter in the UFC based solely on his skillset. Still, the Brazilian never appears to have a game plan when he enters the octagon, often ignoring the easiest path to victory on the mat and choosing to engage in low-volume striking affairs where he constantly pressures but rarely lets his hands go.

When Barcelos does throw, he has excellent power and technique and is highly adept at moving out of the way of his opponent’s counters (66% striking defense).

Raoni Barcelos hands out a little five-piece to get the TKO win 👀. pic.twitter.com/fhouxFHNap

— FOX Sports: UFC (@UFCONFOX) July 15, 2018

Although he’s making his UFC debut on Saturday, Victory Henry is a 26-fight journeyman who holds wins over multiple UFC veterans.

“La Mongosta” is incredibly durable (never been finished in his career) and given Barcelos’ propensity to make fights closer than they need to be, this moneyline is likely a bit wide.

However, I suspect that Barcelos is the far superior grappler, given his background in both wrestling and jiu-jitsu, and I would be disappointed if he didn’t try to grapple for a significant portion of this fight.

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Barcelos vs. Henry Pick

I’m tempted by two plus-money plays here: fight to go the distance (projected +104, listed +120) and Barcelos to win via submission (projected +309, listed +450), and I’ll take a sprinkle of the latter since it aligned with my initial read on the fight.

However, I may be kicking myself for not taking plus money on an over when Barcelos refuses to let his hands go yet again.

The Pick: Raoni Barcelos wins by Submission (+450)

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