Junior Dos Santos vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Odds, Pick & Prediction: The Value Bet to Make for UFC 252
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Junior Dos Santos of Brazil.
- Former heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos (+100) and Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-124) face off on the UFC 252 main card.
- Dos Santos' odds have steadily dropped all week to even money ahead of this matchup.
- Reed Wallach previews the fight, including how he's betting this fight.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik Odds & Picks
|Dos Santos odds||+100 [BET NOW]|
|Rozenstruik odds||-124 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+101/-129) [BET NOW]|
|Venue||UFC Apex, Las Vegas|
|Time||Saturday at 11 p.m. ET|
With all eyes on the heavyweights Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic for UFC 252’s Main Event, two other heavyweights will match up in hopes of pushing up the list of a jumbled weight class.
Former UFC heavyweight champion Junior Dos Santos will try to reestablish himself in the division he used to own after suffering back-to-back knockout losses. He’ll be facing Jairzinho Rozenstruik, the -150 favorite, who soared up the heavyweight ranks before Francis Ngannou viciously knocked him out in UFC 249.
Dos Santos, the +120 underdog, is 36 years old and moving further and further away from his title run in 2013. Tied with Cain Velasquez for second all-time with 10 knockouts as a heavyweight, Dos Santos was stopped early in his past two fights against the aforementioned Ngannou and Curtis Blaydes. However, in his fight prior to that in March 2019, it was Dos Santos who gave Derrick Lewis heavy hands and knocked the contender out in Round 2.
His opponent, Rozenstruik, enjoyed a meteoric rise up the weight class ahead of his fight in May against Ngannou, highlighted by his near buzzer-beating knockout against Alistair Overeem.
Rozenstruik is 4-1 in the UFC with quick work in his three victories before the Overeem classic. There is no denying his knockout power and his finish in the final seconds of a five-round fight at his size is commendable. With a ton of upside, Rozenstruik will try to shake off the nasty KO, and Dos Santos will be a good barometer to see where he stands on the heavyweight totem pole.
Junior Dos Santos Odds History
|Date & Opponent||Opening & Closing Odds||Results|
|1/25/20, Curtis Blaydes||+145, +260||L|
|6/29/19, Francis Ngannou||+170, +190||L|
|3/9/19, Derrick Lewis||-145, -195||W|
|12/1/18, Tai Tuivasa||-135, -165,||W|
|7/14/18, Blagoy Ivanov||-120, -255||W|
Dos Santos’s odds closed lower than the opening number in his past two losses and his record as an underdog hasn’t been promising. Dos Santos hasn’t made it out of the first round in his past three fights as a dog against strong competition in Blaydes, Ngannou and current champ Stipe Miocic in 2017.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik Odds History
|Date & Opponent||Opening & Closing Odds||Results|
|5/9/20, Francis Ngannou||+223, +189||L|
|12/7/19, Alistair Overeem||+105, -195||W|
|11/2/19, Andrei Arlovski||-170, -170||W|
|6/22/19, Allen Crowder||-175, -286||W|
|2/2/19, Junior Albini||-140, +100||W|
Rozenstruik has seen the market move toward him in the past due in large part to his ability to end things quickly in his brief UFC career. That he opened as the favorite against a veteran like Dos Santos is a testament to his recent history before the loss. We could see his odds drop as fight night gets closer later in the week.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||10:59||6:22|
|Weight (pounds)||238 lbs.||242 lbs.|
|Date of birth||1/30/84||3/17/88|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||4.66||3.84|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.13||3.21|
|Take Down Avg||0.33||0.00|
From a statistical perspective, Dos Santos throws about one more significant strike per minute than Rozenstruik. However, it is on defense where the former champ sees a difference.
The veteran Dos Santos defends 58% of significant strikes thrown at him while “Bigi Boy” only avoids 34%. Staying clear of each other’s knockout power punches is going to be key, and Dos Santos has shown over his lengthy career that he can do it.
Dos Santos vs. Rozenstruik Betting Pick
Looking at this fight, both men are going to stand and throw looking for a quick finish. Both have fight stopping power and don’t do much work on the mat. Rozenstruik’s quick start thrust him up the weight class, but it may have been smoke and mirrors.
While he had his hand raised against Overeem, Rozenstruik was likely going to be handed his first loss in the UFC if it wasn’t for his last-second knockout. After that, he seemingly bit off more than he can chew against Ngannou and was humbled. Mind you, that fight was in May and this is a very quick turnaround for someone who was knocked out in that fashion.
Cigano is on a cooler, and his best days may be behind him, but his experience may prove to be the difference here. Dos Santos has seen it all in his time in the octagon and Rozenstruik, while possessing serious power, is not a new challenge for him.
It’s fair to question Dos Santos chin at this point after the two knockouts, but unlike his opponent, he will be the fresher man, having last fought in November.
Looking at the odds, it is fair to question Dos Santos at age 36, but the sample on Rozenstruik is not large enough for me to make him a -150 favorite — if he doesn’t land in the final seconds against Overeem, where is he in the class?
Early numbers from our SportsInsights tools show that Dos Santos has an edge in terms of the amount of betting tickets being wagered, though Rozenstruik has slight edge in money percentage (55% for Bigi Boy). I make this fight close to a coin flip and recommend taking Dos Santos +120 now and see value in Dos Santos up to -110.
The Pick: Dos Santos +120