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UFC 254 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Lauren Murphy’s Experience Over Liliya Shakirova (Saturday, Oct. 24)

UFC 254 Odds, Pick & Prediction: Lauren Murphy’s Experience Over Liliya Shakirova (Saturday, Oct. 24) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Lauren Murphy.

  • Lauren Murphy will face newcomer Liliya Shakirova Saturday at UFC 254.
  • Can Shakirova make noise in here UFC debut?
  • Check out Zerillo's full breakdown for updated odds, picks, and predictions ahead of Saturday's fight.

Lauren Murphy vs. Liliya Shakirova Odds

Murphy odds -271 [BET NOW]
Shakirova odds +190 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-435/+310) [BET NOW]
Venue Yas Island, Abu Dhabi
Time Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN PPV

Odds via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.

Lauren Murphy’s original opponent, Cynthia Calvillo, had to withdraw from this bout due to a positive COVID test, so Liliya Shakirova stepped in on short notice to join Saturday’s Pay-Per-View card.

This will be Shakirova’s first UFC fight and she’ll need to be on point to compete with Murphy who has won three consecutive fights and four of her past five overall. Will this be a walkover for Murphy? Below I break down the Murphy vs. Shakirova odds and matchup. You can also check out my analysis of the 11 other bouts here.

Tale of the Tape

Murphy Shakirova
Record 13-4 8-1
Avg. Fight Time 14:38 N/A
Height 5’5″ 6’2″
Weight (pounds) 125 lbs. 205 lbs.
Reach (inches) 67″ 78″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 7/27/83 10/24/91
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.88 0.00
SS Accuracy 39% 0%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.90 0.00
SS Defense 63% 0%
Take Down Avg 1.14 0.0
TD Acc 35% 0%
TD Def 67% 0%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.0

Murphy vs. Shakirova Betting Pick

Now that her odds have dipped to -200 in some spots, there is certainly projected moneyline value on Murphy, taking on a late-replacement debutant in Sakirova, who appears to have some real long-term upside.

To reiterate some stats from earlier, late-replacements have a 38% win rate in the UFC, and debutants have just a 43% win rate against UFC veterans, so this is an extremely difficult spot.

Murphy is nearly a decade older than her opponent, however, leading to a 35% win expectancy, historically, based on age alone.

But she has also fought against a much higher level of competition and has continued to make improvements in her game when most fighters are building game plans around any remaining strengths.

Murphy is very physical at 125, and I’m not sure if Shakirov, who has shown a diverse set of techniques and skills on the regional scene, will have the strength to overpower this caliber of fighter.

I set her odds to win by decision at 64.6% (implied -183), and you can bet it to -148 (implied 59.6%) at a five percent edge.

I’ll also include her in a parlay with Da Un Jung from the undercard.

The Pick: Murphy to win by Decision (-115, 0.5u) | Parlay: Jung/Murphy (-110, 0.5u)

[Bet UFC 254 now at PointsBet risk-free up to $250]

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