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UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Thiago Moises vs. Melquizael Costa: This Submission Prop Worth a Poke (Saturday, January 21)

UFC 283 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Thiago Moises vs. Melquizael Costa: This Submission Prop Worth a Poke (Saturday, January 21) article feature image
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Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC lightweight Thiago Moises of Brazil

  • It's an all-Brazilian affair when Thiago Moises meets Melquizael Costa at UFC 283 on Saturday.
  • LFA vet Costa, who's a late injury replacement, is a hefty underdog in this lightweight bout.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo discusses the submission prop that he's targeting for this preliminary-card bout.

Thiago Moises vs. Melquizael Costa Odds

Moises Odds
-365
Costa Odds
+300
Over/Under
 2.5 (+105 / -135)
Venue
Jeunesse Arena in Rio de Janeiro
Time
8:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN and ABC
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

Brazilian lightweights Thiago Moises and Melquizael Costa will clash on the UFC 283 preliminary card.

Moises is coming off a Performance of the Night win over Christos Giagos, and he’s a big favorite over Costa, an LFA vet who’s a late replacement for Guram Kutateladze.

Let’s break it down.

Tale of the Tape

Moises Costa
Record 16-6 19-5
Avg. Fight Time 10:51 n/a
Height 5’9″ 5’10”
Weight (pounds) 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach (inches) 70″ n/a
Stance Orthodox Southpaw
Date of birth 3/23/1995 9/14/1996
Sig Strikes Per Min 2.48 n/a
SS Accuracy 37% n/a
SS Absorbed Per Min 4.02 n/a
SS Defense 56% n/a
Take Down Avg 1.11 n/a
TD Acc 36% n/a
TD Def 60% n/a
Submission Avg 1.2 n/a

After fighting the likes of Islam Makhachev and a promising young contender in Joel Alvarez, Moises has had the chance to get back on track with some class relief after his recent win over Christos Giagos and with this upcoming booking against a debutant in Costa.

Moises is typically a fighter I look to bet against. He’s a low-volume striker who has failed to grapple in the past proactively.

I wouldn’t go laying a large sum on Costa’s side as a straight bet, regardless of my projection.

Moises vs. Costa Pick

The striking exchanges should be competitive – if not favor Costa at points.

Moises has a clear path to victory on the mat, and his submission prop (projected +177, listed +240 at BetRivers) seems worth a poke as a straight bet, on top of its inclusion in a round robin.

The Pick: Thiago Moises wins by Submission (+240, 0.1u at BetRivers)

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