UFC 297 Luck Ratings: Bet This 3-1 Underdog? (Saturday, January 20)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC women’s flyweight Priscila Cachoeira of Brazil
Check out some UFC 297 betting options with our UFC Luck Ratings for the Jan. 20 fight card, including the Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis main event on Saturday.
UFC 297 takes place at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. The preliminary card is available on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and ESPNews (8 p.m. ET) before the main card on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET (cost: $79.99).
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was to start thinking about why markets might be wrong, rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, that’s what a betting line is: a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events happening. For the most part, these markets are efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA – where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA – it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to figure out spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll be looking into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, causing the line to be inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, fights that are later overruled, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights considered, as well.
The focus will be on fights reasonably likely to see the scorecards here, or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
*Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings. Maximize your UFC 297 betting action with our DraftKings promo code.
Sean Strickland (-130) vs. Dricus du Plessis (+110)
Sean Strickland ruined the UFC's best-laid plans of having Israel Adesanya defend the UFC middleweight crown against Dricus du Plessis by defeating the long-time champion in a shocking upset almost nobody saw coming.
Now Strickland has a chance to prove he's a legitimate champion against the surging South African, who is 6-0 in the UFC with five finishes.
It was a unique run to the top for Strickland, who "earned" a title shot more based on availability than accomplishments. He was 2-2 in his previous four fights before winning the belt, with neither win coming against a top-10 fighter.
Handicapping this one comes down to whether you think the title win was evidence of Strickland's ability – or simply Adesanya looking past Strickland in the fight. Adesanya's drunk-driving conviction shortly before that fight is strong evidence of the latter conclusion.
On top of that, DDP is the far more prolific finisher while Strickland will need to rely on the judges to score his volume over du Plessis' power in order to claim victory.
The line seems to be inching toward Strickland, so there's no rush on this one, but my early lean is for the middleweight crown to change hands once again.
Verdict: Dricus du Plessis Undervalued
Mayra Bueno Silva (-162) vs. Raquel Pennington (+136)
Following the retirement of champ Amanda Nunes, the UFC had plenty of good options for the vacant title fight, but no true standouts. The lucky winners for the first crack at the vacant belt are Mayra Bueno Silva and Raquel Pennington – with "Sheetara" installed as a slight favorite.
Bueno Silva comes into the fight on what should be a four-fight winning streak, with her stoppage of Holly Holms overturned to a no-contest due to failing a drug test for Ritalin.
Since that's hardly a performance enhancer, I'm willing to chalk that up as a win.
Pennington has won five straight, though she's finished just one of those. Additionally, her most recent win was a split decision over Ketlen Viera. Bueno Silva has finished her last three, all via submission.
This one should be close to a tossup if it hits the judges, but Bueno Silva has all the stoppage upside. The line has already moved heavily her way, but I expect it to keep going, so jump on her moneyline as soon as possible. The best available is -162 at DraftKings.
Verdict: Mayra Bueno Silva Undervalued
(MMA bettors: With North Carolina sports betting coming online this year, you’ll be able to bet legally on the UFC at major sportsbooks. Learn more.)
Movsar Evloev (-198) vs. Arnold Allen (+164)
The main-card opener features top-10 featherweights Movsar Evloev and Arnold Allen, with the winner likely to be next in line for a shot at the featherweight crown that's up for grabs at UFC 298 next month.
Evloev is a perfect 17-0 as a professional, including 7-0 in the UFC, but it hasn't been an entirely smooth ride.
Evloev was dangerously close to being submitted by short-notice replacement Diego Lopes in his last fight, and he probably would've lost had Lopes had a full camp to prepare. He also needed a split decision to get by Nik Lentz, and he hasn't finished any of his UFC fights.
Allen was 10-0 until he ran into Max Holloway, who dominated Allen on the feet. It's hard to downgrade him for that though, as Holloway has done the same to every featherweight not named Volkanovski for more a decade – he's won his last 18 featherweight fights against anyone other than the champ.
Allen also has a bit more finishing upside, with four of his six UFC wins coming inside the distance.
The line has been shifting towards Evloev after opening around -160. The price on Allen still isn't quite high enough for my taste, but I'd be looking to jump in around +175 – or wait for "finish only" markets later in the week.
Verdict: Arnold Allen Undervalued, But Wait
Yohan Lainesse (-148) vs. Sam Patterson (+124)
Yohan Lainesse came into the UFC with a decent amount of hype following his first-round knockout victory on the Contender Series.
Since then he's been finished twice with his lone win coming via split decision. That split arguably should've gone the other way, with eight of 15 media members scoring it for Darian Weeks. Either way, at best it was a razor-thin victory over a fighter who finished his UFC career 0-3.
Sam Patterson was also a highly regarded prospect coming into his UFC debut before being upset in a quick knockout loss to Yanal Ashomuz. I thought that was a bad stylistic matchup for Patterson, but I'm less concerned with Lainesse.
The other factor here is the reach edge for Patterson. With a 76-inch reach, Lainesse typically is longer than his opponents. Not so against the 6-foot-3 Patterson, who boasts a 78-inch reach. That's a big adjustment for "The White Lion" to have to make.
I like Patterson's chances here at slight plus-money, but I will be holding out to see if we can get an even better line later.
Verdict: Sam Patterson Undervalued
Jasmine Jasudavicius (-360) vs. Priscilla Cachoeira (+285)
Jasmine Jasudavicius should win this fight. She's the more technically proficient fighter everywhere with a massive grappling edge over the brawling Priscilla Cachoeira.
But these are some long odds. Especially for a fighter who's seen the judges scorecard in all five of her UFC fights. While she's 3-2 in those bouts, Jasudavicius is playing with fire by going to the judges so regularly.
Jasudavicius' game is based on takedowns and top control, which isn't always rewarded, especially against aggressive opponents who land a big shot or two.
Outside of that, if I told you ahead of time this one sees the judges, would you rather have the +310 ticket or the -400?
Absent any other information, the answer is clearly A. That's the bet I'll be making here, as Cachoeira has far more paths to justify her price tag than Jasudavicius does. She's also a candidate for "finish only" or inside the distance props later in the week.
Verdict: Priscilla Cachoeira Undervalued
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