UFC 305 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos (Saturday, August 17)

UFC 305 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Casey O’Neill vs. Luana Santos (Saturday, August 17) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC flyweight Casey O’Neill of Scotland

Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos Odds

O'Neill Odds
+128
Santos Odds
-159
Over/Under
2.5 (-230 / +165)
Location
RAC Arena in Perth, Australia
Time
8:30 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN
UFC 305 odds as of Saturday and via BetRivers. Bet on UFC 305 with our BetRivers promo code!

Check out the Casey O'Neill vs. Luana Santos odds with my UFC 305 pick and prediction for Saturday, August 17.

Will we finally see the Casey O'Neill we all remember from a few years ago? The once-red-hot prospect that injected some fresh blood into the 125-pound flyweight division?

That's the big question heading into this UFC 305 preliminary card bout, where O'Neill looks to end a two-fight skid when she meets intriguing-but-still-unproven Santos.

A few years ago, it's hard to imagine O'Neill as anything but a solid favorite in this spot.

Now, though, we may be getting some tremendous value with O'Neill vs. Santos at UFC 305.

Dann Stupp's Tale of the Tape

O'NeillSantos
Record9-28-1
Avg. Fight Time11:177:23
Height5'6"5'6"
Weight (pounds)125.5 lbs.126 lbs.
Reach (inches)69"67"
StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
Date of birth10/7/19974/16/2000
Sig Strikes Per Min8.415.33
SS Accuracy54%55%
SS Absorbed Per Min6.303.21
SS Defense56%65%
Take Down Avg1.772.03
TD Acc38%60%
TD Def66%66%
Submission Avg0.72.0

At worst, I feel like this is a 50-50 fight for O'Neill, regardless of her recent form.

Therefore, getting any underdog odds for the more-proven product already seems like a good deal. In fact, motivated by Billy Ward's UFC 305 Luck Ratings earlier this week, I immediately grabbed a piece of O'Neill, knowing I'd have some closing line value, if nothing else.

But there are many other intangibles that make me more secure in my pick for this bout.

For one, O'Neill's UFC stock is at an all-time low with her recent skid. Likewise, Santos has some buzz, but her most recent win was largely due to a boneheaded move by opponent Mariya Agapova, who tried to readjust her mouthpiece instead of fighting off a choke:

O'Neill made some mistakes in her recent fights – mainly, falling in love with her striking – but I don't think she's green enough to make such an unfocused error like the one above.

Also as an advantage, O'Neill is fighting at home with a full camp against an opponent who's crossing the globe from Brazil with a mere two-week fight camp. O'Neill also recently spoke about her need to refocus and improve, and she recently changed fight teams. That kind of move is usually a good step for a fighter in her situation.

UFC 305 Best Bets: 4 Expert Picks for Australia Image

Additionally, as O'Neill continues to distance herself from a serious knee injury, her confidence is only going to grow. In interviews this week, she said she finally doesn't even think about her knee while training.

O'Neill should have an edge on the mat with grappling that's more polished for the sport of MMA. But even if (new) old habits die hard and she keeps the fighting standing more than she should, I think O'Neill could still have an advantage, especially with a two-inch reach advantage and an active striking game.

O'Neill vs. Santos Pick

With O'Neill likely undervalued by the market, the short-notice nature of the bout for Santos, and a partisan crowd that could help sway the judges (in a fight expected to go the distance 67% of the time), I think the value is clearly on the home underdog.

Santos could very well be among the next generation of flyweight contenders, but until I've seen her against more O'Neill-level opposition, I'm favoring the more proven product on MMA's biggest stage.

I'm sitting pretty with my +145 moneyline bet from earlier in the week, but at the current +128 odds, I think O'Neill still has solid value. I'd make this bout a pick'em at worse, so play it down to +110 to still get some decent value.

The Pick: Casey O'Neill (+128 at BetRivers) | Play to +110

About the Author
Dann Stupp is a senior editor who oversees The Action Network's coverage of MMA, boxing, NHL, NASCAR and Formula 1. He's the co-founder of MMA Junkie and the former MMA editor for The Athletic.

Follow Dann Stupp @dannstupp on Twitter/X.

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