UFC Fight Night Bets, Picks for Saturday’s Card: Expert Picks for Saturday, Including Overeem vs. Harris
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Alistair Overeem.
- Our experts are betting Saturday's UFC card, including the main event between Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris.
- They also have picks on Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don'Tale Mayes and Eryk Anders vs. Krzysztof Jotko.
- Check out their predictions and picks below, including some moneyline bets and over/under picks for the main event.
Another night, another fight.
Saturday night features another awesome UFC card headlined by two huge heavyweight who will be mixing it up in the octagon Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris.
Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris is set for 11 fights — six on the preliminary card and five on the main show — live from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla.
The six-fight preliminary card is set to start at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card following at 9 p.m. ET.
Check out our favorite bets below:
Betting Analyst, The Action Network
Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don’Tale Mayes
This Heavyweight fight is listed as a pick’em, but I prefer the Brazilian Nascimento, an undefeated grappler, against the American Mayes — a standup specialist with an undeveloped ground game.
This is one of just two preliminary fights projected to finish inside the distance and at odds of -305 (implied 75%), it seems likely with such a clash of styles.
Nascimento is listed at +175 to win by submission, while Mayes is the same price to win by KO/TKO. But I make the Brazilian’s fair odds in this fight closer to -200 than a pick’em, and I would bet his moneyline to -135.
The Pick: Nascimento ML (-110)
Editor, The Action Network
Alistair Overeem vs. Walt Harris
Based on the odds, this fight is the least likely to go the distance on the entire card and if you’ve ever seen Harris or Overeem inside the octagon that makes sense. I don’t recommend looking at Overeem’s last fight too closely if you’re squeamish — it did not end well for him — but I think it’s worth paying attention to since it was the first time in Overeem’s career that he went past the third round of a bout.
That five-rounder bumped the Demolition Man’s average fight time up and yet, among active heavyweights, Harris and Overeem both rank in the top 10 for shortest average fight time per FightMetric data. Both guys like to get after it early in fights, and while they will both obviously be looking to avoid one another’s big shots, one will definitely get through and that’s enough with the power they exhibit.
This could be close, but I just can’t take my eyes off the under 1.5 rounds in this fight.
The Pick: Under 1.5 Rounds +120
MMA Managing Editor at The Athletic
Eryk Anders vs. Krzysztof Jotko
Two middleweight southpaws who have recently bounced back from three-fight skids meet in this main-card matchup as Anders (13-4) takes on Jotko (21-4).
Anders, a former University of Alabama linebacker, has bounced between the middleweight and light heavyweight divisions in recent years, but the heavy-handed 33-year-old seems best suited for his current 185-pound class.
“Ya Boi” looks to build off recent victories over Vinicius Moreira (knockout) and Gerald Meerschaert (split decision) when he meets Jotko, The well-rounded 30-year-old Polish fighter has been a staple of the UFC’s international cards since 2013, racking up an overall 8-4 UFC record with seven decision victories, including recent ones over Marc-Andre Barriault and Alen Amedovski.
I like Jotko in this spot, even at the current -150 odds. The savvy veteran needs to stay out of Anders’ range and chip away with punches and kicks. He also needs to avoid being too upright and rigid — an issue we’ve seen in his losses. Anders has power, no doubt, but he struggles a bit with his accuracy, and as Jotko has done throughout his decade-long career, he can play a defensive game, pick his spots and frustrate a chasing opponent.
If Jotko can avoid Anders’ big shots and get this fight to the judges’ cards, I think he takes the decision.
The Pick: Jotko ML (has moved to -160)
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