UFC Fight Night Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Previewing Every Fight on Saturday’s Card

Credit:

Chris Unger, Getty Images. Pictured: Roosevelt Roberts

  • Saturday's UFC Fight Night Card gets underway at 5 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN+), and will be capped off with a heavyweight fight between Curtis Blaydes and Alexander Volkov.
  • Alexander Volkov is the heavy favorite (-455) in the main event, and the over/under has been set at 2.5, with -148 juice on the under.
  • Below you'll find Sean Zerillo's picks and betting strategy for all of tonight's fights, including some juicy prop bets on Blaydes vs. Volkov.

UFC Fight Night: Apex 3 begins at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+ on Saturday with a seven-fight preliminary card. The main card starts at 8 p.m. ET featuring five bouts, including the main event between Curtis Blaydes (13-2) and Alexander Volkov (31-7)

In addition to moneylines and Over/Unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight — including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside of the distance.

As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.

Check out the full betting odds for Saturday’s UFC card, with analysis and picks from Sean Zerillo for each fight below:


UFC MAIN EVENT PROMO! Bet Curtis “Razor” Blaydes at +100 odds (boosted from -400) on Saturday night.


UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Volkov Odds

Preliminary Card

  • Time: 5 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN/ESPN+

Lightweight: Austin Hubbard vs. Max Rohskopf

Odds
Hubbard odds +120
Rohskopf odds -152
Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-139)

Crowdsourced Projection: Rohskopf (78%)

Max Rohskopf is making his UFC debut on six days’ notice, both of which are negative indicators for his chances, historically.

UFC newcomers only win at a 43% clip when facing UFC veterans in their debuts, and late replacements (<40 days notice) only win at a 37% clip.

That being said, such fighters are typically the underdog in those bouts, and the crowd projection thinks that the betting market is underrating Rohskopf’s chances to remain undefeated in his professional career.

He is an elite-level wrestler from NC State with excellent jiu-jitsu skills, who has won all five of his professional MMA bouts via submission, facing an opponent who was taken down eight times in his last match.

Hubbard was preparing to face another grappler, so his gameplan likely remains the same, but he gives up three inches of height and two inches of reach to Rohskopf and has to fight in the smaller, 25-foot octagon at APEX in Las Vegas.

Sixty-five percent of the crowd likes Rohskopf to win by submission, making his implied odds -103, or 50.7% to win the fight that way, compared to listed odds of +175, with an implied probability of 36.4%, that gives you a 14.3% edge.

Hubbard’s most likely path to victory would come by grinding out a decision, which the crowd selected at a 71% rate. But those odds should be around +567 or higher, given his actual probability of winning the fight (22%) – and he’s +400 in the market for a match that is -159 to finish inside of the distance.

Pick: Rohskopf by Submission +175

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Women’s Flyweight: Roxanne Modafferi vs. Lauren Murphy

Odds
Modafferi odds -124
Murphy odds +100
Over/Under 2.5 (-335/+225)

Crowdsourced Projections: Moddafferi (75%)

The crowd projection sees a considerable edge on Moddafferi, but this should be a close fight between two UFC veterans that is likely (-278) to go to the scorecards – which will be a theme throughout the night.

The crowd projection agrees with the betting market, suggesting that the fight has a 73% probability, or implied odds of -270, to go to a decision.

Murphy is the more physically gifted fighter, and of the two, I feel that she is significantly more likely to finish the fight – with cleaner striking (-0.26 significant strike differential, compared to -1.76 for Moddaferi) and more substantial power.

But in a decision fight, Modafferi is more likely to push the pace of the with volume and win the cardio battle.

Murphy’s takedown defense (61%) and scrambles will be a significant factor in the fight. Still, I’m not keen on betting on either moneyline when the judges likely have to choose between Murphy’s power and Moddafferi’s volume.

Murphy vs. Moddafferi Bets

  • Pass

UFC MAIN EVENT PROMO! Bet Curtis “Razor” Blaydes at +100 odds (boosted from -400) on Saturday night.


Lightweight: Justin Jaynes vs. Frank Camacho 

Odds
Jaynes odds +260
Camacho odds -360
Over/Under TBD

Crowdsourced Projections: Camacho (81%) 

Camacho has a six-inch reach advantage and is three-inches taller than Jaynes, a late replacement for Matt Frevola – whose cornerman tested positive for COVID-19.

Camacho is an exciting fighter – averaging a combined 13.8 significant strikes landed and absorbed per minute – and he moved from a +130 underdog at open against Frevola to a -110 pick’em, before moving to a considerable favorite against Jaynes.

To reiterate my point from earlier, UFC newcomers only win at a 43% clip when facing UFC veterans in their debuts, and late replacements (<40 days notice) only win at a 37% clip.

Camacho did miss weight by two pounds, but that generally is not an issue either – fighters who have missed weight are 41-40 since 2013, at average odds of +103 (49.5%) and sizable favorites (>-186 odds) are 13-1 (93%) after missing weight.

This fight is -265 to finish inside of the distance, and the crowd says that Camacho wins by KO/TKO 71% of the time – putting his knockout probability at 57%, implied odds of -133.

I would have bet that knockout prop down to +113, a 10% edge, but books opened the line around even money – so I’ll pass on a fight where I originally liked Frevola.

Jaynes vs. Camacho Bets

  • Pass

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]


Women’s Flyweight: Cortney Casey vs. Gillian Robertson 

Odds
Casey odds +100
Robertson odds -124
Over/Under 2.5 (-152/+115)

Crowdsourced Projections: Robertson (52%)

The moneyline prices look spot on for this fight compared with the crowd projection, and the bout is essentially a pick’em to go the distance, whereas the crowd would put those odds around -170, or 63%.

The style matchups plays in favor of Robertson, who should be able to take Casey (39% takedown defense) to the mat at will (3.44 takedowns per 15 minutes, 47% accuracy) in a smaller cage – but Casey is strong off of her back and difficult to advance on, so if she can get back to her feet and keep the fight standing, her cleaner (+0.09 vs. -0.57 strike differential) and higher volume striking (+2.54 significant strikes landed per minute) should make the difference.

But despite her weak takedown defense, Casey is an underrated grappler, and she still has a path to victory, even from her back:

I initially had planned to bet on Robertson to win given the style matchup, but ultimately there is no line value on this fight.

Casey vs. Robertson Bets

  • Pass

UFC MAIN EVENT PROMO! Bet Curtis “Razor” Blaydes at +100 odds (boosted from -400) on Saturday night.


Middleweight: Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Oskar Piechota

Odds
Brarriault odds +110
Piechota odds -137
Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-139)

Crowdsourced Projections: Piechota (63%)

Both men come into this middleweight bout on three-fight losing streaks, with Brarriault losing three consecutive decisions. At the same time, Piechota has been knocked out once and submitted twice, after winning his first two UFC appearances.

I tend to agree with the betting market – that this will be a close fight – but I  generally disagree with the inside the distance prop, which is set at -167 to finish early; and I cannot recommend making a bet on either side of that wager, or the total.

Barriault has proven himself to be durable, and while Piechota has excellent jiu-jitsu and should be able to take his opponent down with ease, the Poland native hasn’t won by submission since 2017.

He should be able to mix it up much more so than Barriault and is the striker with both a positive differential (+0.15 vs. -0.67) and the southpaw advantage (53% win rate vs. orthodox fighters).

Piechota looks like the right side in the fight, but this could be an ugly affair, and I don’t see nearly enough value on either Piechota by submission (+400), or the Over given his recent stoppage streak.

Barriault vs. Piechota Bets

  • Pass

UFC MAIN EVENT PROMO! Bet Curtis “Razor” Blaydes at +100 odds (boosted from -400) on Saturday night.


Women’s Strawweight: Tecia Torres vs. Brianna Van Buren

Odds
Torres odds +165
Van Buren odds -210
Over/Under 2.5 (-560/+350)

Crowdsourced Projections: Van Buren (66%)

The moneyline prices look to be correct compared to the crowd projection for this fight, which is seemingly a lock in my eyes to go the distance, at -500, between two of the smaller fighters in the women’s Strawweight division.

The crowd puts those odds to go the distance at -769, or 88.5%, and I think that you could toss the Over into an all-chalk parlay, but I’m a bit hesitant.

Van Buren has the southpaw advantage and comes in off of an impressive win in her UFC debut – while Torres is on a four-fight losing skid, each by decision, and all to championship-caliber talent.

Van Buren has the stylistic advantage – with powerful takedowns and a strong submission game from the top – so she will put Tecia’s takedown defense (52%) to the test, and potentially win by KO/TKO after some ground and pound (+900).

But Torres (4.04 strikes landed per minute, 47% accuracy) is the best striker and classiest opponent that she has ever faced, and the underdog can certainly win her first decision in five attempts on volume and cardio alone.

Torres vs. Van Buren  Bets

  • Pass

UFC MAIN EVENT PROMO! Bet Curtis “Razor” Blaydes at +100 odds (boosted from -400) on Saturday night.


Lightweight: Clay Guida vs. Bobby Green

Odds
Guida odds -240
Green odds +185
Over/Under 2.5 (-190/+140)

Crowdsourced Projections: Green (68%)

Two struggling, but entertaining, Lightweights close out the preliminary card, as Clay Guida’s relentless energy takes on trash-talking Bobby Green, who should thrive with live mics around to capture everything that he says.

Green is the significantly better boxer, as evidence by the disparity in strike differential (+1.25 to +0.05) and accuracy (49% to 33%). Still, Guida has an average 3.4 takedowns per 15 minutes throughout his UFC career – and he will undoubtedly use those takedown attempts to try to grind his way to victory, in his record 29th UFC appearance.

Green has excellent takedown defense (74%) and has shown the ability to get back up – which makes him a solid favorite in this bout, but right in line with the crowd projection; and this could end up as a split decision; which Green is frequently on the wrong end of while out-striking his opponents.

The crowd makes this bout -186, with a 65% probability to go to the scorecards, leaving around 6% of line value compared to the current odds at -148.

But Over 2.5 rounds is juiced up to -190 – leaving little to no value on that bet as a potential parlay piece.

Guida vs. Green Bets

  • Pass

UFC MAIN EVENT PROMO! Bet Curtis “Razor” Blaydes at +100 odds (boosted from -400) on Saturday night.


Main Card

  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Catchweight (160 pounds): Jim Miller vs. Roosevelt Roberts

Odds
Miller odds +185
Roberts odds -240
Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-106)

Crowdsourced Projections: Roberts (78%)

I have quickly become a fan of Roberts, an up-and-coming prospect who can mix it up well with speed, power, and grappling. Still, he’ll have to survive early pressure from a superior grappler in Miller – who has recorded 17 of his 31 career victories, and each of his past three wins by submission.

Miller is five inches shorter, with two fewer inches of reach than Roberts, who the crowd expects to win by decision 39% of the time, compared to listed odds of +175, or 36.4%.

Miller, by submission (+425), seems to be his most likely path to victory, but at a 22% win projection, I cannot justify anything below +500.

The fight is -140 to finish inside of the distance, and I think Roberts will either get tapped early or put on a show – with all of his gifts on display.

I would include Roberts in parlays, given the line value relative to his projection, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking a blind stab at Miller Round 1 (+600).
Miller vs. Roberts Bets

  • Use Roosevelt Roberts as a parlay piece.

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]


Welterweight: Belal Muhammad vs. Lyman Good

Odds
Muhammad odds -130
Good odds +105
Over/Under 2.5 (-190/+140)

Crowdsourced Projections: Muhammad (71%)

Muhammad is the more well-rounded fighter in this welterweight bout, and the crowd projection suggests that he makes for a secure moneyline wager on Saturday.

Good has the size and power advantage with a higher strike volume (+0.95) and better differential (+1.86 to 0.56). Still, Muhammad can out-point him with speed, stamina, and the ability to change levels – averaging 2.15 takedowns per 15 minutes.

He tends to grind out wins and take over in the second half of fights, and this will likely be no different if he can withstand some early pressure from Good – who seemingly has to win by KO/TKO. Still, I would need at least +470 (implied 17.5%) at a 29% win probability to bet that prop, and it is half that price in the betting market.

I’ll keep it simple and take the chalk on the moneyline at a shorter price than I think he should be – but I’m not interested in a +130 decision prop.

Pick: Belal Muhhamad -120

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Women’s Bantamweight: Raquel Pennington vs. Marion Reneau

Odds
Pennington odds -152
Reneau odds +120
Over/Under 2.5 (-335/+225)

Crowdsourced Projections: Pennington (74%)

There is an 11-year age gap between these two fighters, and stamina has to be a significant concern for the 42-year-old Reneau.

This is yet another fight that is likely to go the distance, listed at -278, or 73.5% in the betting market, but the crowd projection puts it closer to 86%, implied odds of -613.

I cannot trust either fighter on the moneyline, regardless of the projections – Pennington has looked unmotivated since her title fight loss to Amanda Nunes, but she remains a championship-level talent. In contrast, Reneau’s skills and athleticism have fallen off over time, and she will likely gas out early.

This should be a close decision, but I don’t anticipate a stoppage for either fighter, and I would include Over 2.5 rounds (-335) in a parlay.

Pennington vs. Reneau Bets

  • Use Over 2.5 rounds (-335) as a parlay piece.

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]


Featherweight: Josh Emmett vs. Shane Burgos

Odds
Emmett odds +115
Burgos odds -143
Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-148)

Crowdsourced Projections: Burgos (53%)

The crowd projection for the co-main event looks to be on point, so I’ll focus my attention on winning method props and the total.

The fight is -190 to finish inside the distance, with seven of their past eight combined bouts ending early.

The crowd expects Emmett to win by KO/TKO 73% of the time when he does win, making his fair odds for that prop around +194, or 34%, providing some value compared to listed odds at +225.

Burgos fights at a high, efficient, pace, averaging 7.1 strikes landed per minute, with a +1.75 differential, while Emmett patiently waits to counter with power shots – and he should be able to land some big right hands on Burgos – who has been dropped in each of his past two fights – despite a 36% accuracy rate:

Burgos is listed at the same price (+225) for KO/TKO as Emmett, but the crowd thinks that he’s equally likely to win by decision, and you can get a better price on that prop, (+300) or bet the fight to go to the distance (+140) but I don’t see much value there.

Emmett packs significant power for the Featherweight division, and Burgos likely needs to turn down the pressure just a bit and stay out of range a little more often than he wants to, to be wary of those knockout blows.

He can’t help but stick to his pressure-filled style, however, and I expect Emmett to test his questionable chin if he hangs in the pocket too long.

Burgos seemingly needs to use his size advantage (five inches of height and reach) and land body shots at high volume to win on points while avoiding the big knockout blow.

Pick: Josh Emmett by KO/TKO/DQ (+225)

Bet Now at DraftKings

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Heavyweight: Curtis Blaydes vs. Alexander Volkov

Odds
Blaydes odds +333
Volkov odds -455
Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-148)

Crowdsourced Projections: Curtis Blaydes (88%)

If you want a more in-depth analysis of the main event, check out my full fight preview. 

In short, Blaydes is a tremendous wrestler who has made steady but significant improvement with his striking. He is vicious in the clinch, and when he gets top control, which often happens, with a 38-0 takedown advantage in his last nine fights.

Volkov doesn’t have significant enough power, like Francis Ngannou – the only man who has defeated Blaydes – to force “Razor” to change his style and counterpunch.

Betting the Over in heavyweight bouts is hugely profitable. While this fight is -400 (implied 80%) to finish inside of the distance, the betting market only puts Blaydes’s chances of a first or second-round finish at 47%.

I’m going to play Over 2.5 rounds (+110), alongside three result props — Blaydes Round 3 (+750), Blaydes Round 4 (+1100), and Blaydes round 5 (+1800) — for small stakes, and search for a big plus-money middle with Volkov’s fight IQ.

You can also use Blaydes to close out a parlay.

Blaydes vs. Volkov Bets

  • Blaydes/Volkov, Over 2.5 Rounds +115 (1 unit)
  • Blaydes Round 3 (+750, 0.2 units)
  • Blaydes Round 4 (+1100, 0.2 units)
  • Blaydes Round 5 (+1800, 0.1 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]


Zerillo’s UFC Fight Night Bets

  • Max Rohskopf by Submission +175 (1 unit)
  • Belal Muhammad -120 (1 unit)
  • Josh Emmett by KO/TKO/DQ +225 (1 unit)
  • Curtis Blaydes / Alexander Volkov, Over 2.5 Rounds +115 (1 unit)
    • Curtis Blaydes Round 3 (+750, 0.2 units); Blaydes Round 4 (+1100, 0.2 units); Blaydes Round 5 (+1800, 0.1 units)
  • Parlay: Curtis Blaydes / Roosevelt Roberts / Reneau vs. Pennington Over 2.5 Rounds (+127, 1.5 units)
  • Parlay: Curtis Blaydes /  Reneau vs. Pennington Over 2.5 Rounds (-167, Risk 1 unit)
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