UFC Fight Night: Betting Projections, Props & Picks for Holm vs. Aldana and More
Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured (L-R): Opponents Holly Holm and Irene Aldana of Mexico.
- Former women's bantamweight champion Holly Holm headlines Saturday's UFC Fight Night card with a main-event bout against Irene Aldana.
- Sean Zerillo shares his picks and prop projections for all 11 fights on Saturday, including the undercard and main event.
- Check out full odds and analysis for UFC Fight Night below.
Another week, another slate of action on Fight Island.
Saturday’s UFC Fight Night action will take place on Yas Island starting with a six-bout undercard starting at 7:30 p.m. ET followed by five fights on the main card beginning at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN. The action is headlined by 38-year-old former women’s bantamweight champion Holly Holm as she is set to face Irene Aldana in the main event.
This week, my projections will look a bit different from past versions. You can still see the model and find an edge for moneyline bets, exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside of the distance below. And I’ll be giving short analysis of the fights I’m looking to bet this weekend, but the picks I’m making can also be found in the Action App.
Check out the full betting odds for Saturday’s UFC card, with analysis and picks from for each fight below:
UFC Fight Night Moneyline Projections and Picks
As a result, after examining all of the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value. Below, you can find my crowdsourced fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday’s 11 bouts.
UFC Fight Night Prop Projections and Picks
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission — which also enables us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance.
The Fights I’m Betting
Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jinh Yu Frey
Loma is the first Thai fighter to break into the UFC, and though she will generally be at a size-disadvantage in the 115-pound division, Frey is also a natural Atomweight, and she doesn’t have the grappling skills to trouble Lookboonmee – who should win on volume (lands +2.97 additional significant strikes per minute) with her aggressive Muay-Thai.
Jordan Williams vs. Nassourdine Imavov
The Dagestani is making his UFC debut, which is something I typically fade in fights against UFC veterans, but Williams doesn’t qualify as a vet here – and Imavov is out of a solid gym from MMA Factory in France, the same team as Francis Ngannou. Williams is a Type-1 diabetic and doesn’t cut weight before fights, so he’s often at a size disadvantage, and Imavov should be the larger man here (three inches taller) in what amounts to a striker vs. striker battle.
Charles Jourdain vs. Joshua Culibao
The Canadian, Jourdain, isn’t short on confidence – telling a bettor to, “put a million on me,” at odds of -450. He is an action fighter – never finished in his career, with all 10 wins coming by stoppage – and hasn’t been shy about the fact that he’s attacking a performance bonus on Saturday. Culibao also likes to throw early bombs, and I’m expecting one of these two men to fall – but Jourdain has proven to be incredibly durable – and I suspect he finds his mark by the end of the second round.
Germaine de Randamie vs. Julia Pena
GDR was taken down eight times by Amanda Nunes in her most recent fight but has only lost twice in the past eight years — both times to Nunes. She has a two-inch reach advantage in this matchup and fought at 145 pounds previously, which means she’s massive for the 135-pound division. Pena has had a significant layoff — one fight in the past three years. She is one dimensional and will try to take this down to the mat. GDR largely survived against Nunes, so has her takedown defense might be improved, specifically after denying 17 combined takedown attempts in wins over Holly Holm and Raquel Pennington.
Yorgan De Castro vs. Carlos Felipe
The last time we saw de Castro, he got outclassed by Greg Hardy. who has a freakish reach, after de Castro appeared to injure his foot in Round 1. Felipe seems durable, and de Castro generally slows down after applying heat early in the fight. But Felipe has cardio issues to watch as well. He made his UFC debut in July off a three-year layoff, following a USADA suspension, and he wasn’t particularly impressive against Sergey Spivak. de Castro should have opportunities to chop down Felipe’s lead leg early in the fight – and so long as he doesn’t compromise his foot again, the Cape Verdean should eventually stiffen that leg and find openings inside of the pocket to land power shots.
Holly Holm vs. Irene Aldana
Holm’s ground game has been improving over her UFC career, but the 38-year-old could fall of at any moment. Her recent losses all came against top competition (all former champions or title challengers), but she hasn’t shined in her wins either and is 3-5 in her past eight bouts. I expect lots of fainting, low striking volume, and for this fight to be spent up against the cage in the clinch. Both women have knockouts on their record – but this fight has split-decision written all over it.
Don’t forget to follow my picks in the Action App!
Zerillo’s UFC Fight Night Bets
- Loma Lookboonmee to win by Decision (+110, 1 unit)
- Nassourdine Imavov +120 (0.5 units)
- Charles Jourdain to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+100, 0.5 units)
- Germaine de Randamie -145 (0.5 units)
- Yorgan de Castro (-225, 0.5 units)
- Holm/Aldana, Over 4.5 Rounds (-240, 0.5 units)
- Parlay: Charles Jourdain / Darko Todorovic / Yorgan de Castro (+128, 0.5 units)