UFC Vegas 84 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez: Gotta Fade This Workhorse (Saturday, January 13)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Gabriel Benitez of Mexico
Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez Odds
| Miller Odds | -155 |
| Benitez Odds | +130 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-140 / +110) |
| Venue | UFC Apex in Las Vegas |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| Channel | ESPN+ |
| Odds as of Saturday and via Caesars. Maximize your UFC betting action with our Caesars Sportsbook promo code. | |
Here's everything you need to know about the Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez on Saturday, Jan. 13 – our expert MMA prediction and pick.
Jim Miller will extend his record for the most fights in UFC history tonight when he makes his 43rd walk to the UFC octagon.
While Miller is not gaining ground on the No. 2 fighter on that list – Andrei Arlovski is also fighting this weekend – it's an absurd record nonetheless.
What's even crazier? Miller has looked good in recent fights. Sure, he's not exactly fighting top competition, but he's still 4-1 in his last five bouts with finishes in all of those wins.
His opponent on tonight's UFC Vegas 84 co-main event isn't exactly top competition either – with Gabriel Benitez coming into the fight at 7-6 in the UFC. He's no slouch, but the matchmakers were thinking competitive fight when they put this one together, not "get a young guy over at Jim Miller's expense."
Tale of the Tape
| Miller | Benitez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 36-17 | 23-11 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:36 | 8:31 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'8" |
| Weight | 155.5 pounds | 155 pounds |
| Reach | 71 inches | 71 inches |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 8/30/1983 | 6/15/1988 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.86 | 4.79 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 41% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.08 | 4.05 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 65% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.56 | 0.27 |
| TD Acc | 43% | 50% |
| TD Def | 48% | 58% |
| Submission Avg | 1.8 | 1.1 |
We've had a few different versions of Jim Miller in his 16 years in the UFC, but we should all know what to expect with the latest one. He goes right after his opponents, moving forward from a southpaw stance and throwing hard shots at his opponent's head.
He's an excellent grappler – he once submitted Charles Oliveira – but the athletic decline for Miller has made it harder to get takedowns. He's still a threat if he can get the fight to the ground, as he showed in a submission against fellow "veteran" Donald Cerrone in the summer of 2022.
Outside of that fight, he's largely abandoned the grappling, though.
What he still had, in spades, is power in his hands and a strong chin. He's somehow suffered just two knockdowns in 42 UFC fights, and none in the last five years. That can take a fighter a long way, even with the negative striking differential Miller sports.
On the other hand, chins are great until they aren't, and Miller is playing a dangerous game by getting into firefights at the age of 40.
Truthfully, I would've expected his chin and reflexes to have left him a long time ago, but it's assuredly happening at some point.
It might not be this weekend, but he can only defy the odds for so long.
Which brings us to Benitez, who's been out of action since August 2022. At 35, he's far from an up-and-coming fighter, but the five years of age and 20 fewer professional bouts than Miller make him green by comparison.
Benitez is a former featherweight who found early success in the UFC octagon, but he then lost two fights in a row, missing weight in one, while another fight was canceled due to his inability to perform on the scales.
He rebounded by jumping up to lightweight, where he picked up a first-round knockout win in his divisional debut.
A fellow southpaw, he fights like a bizarro version of Miller.
He throws just as hard, but he prefers to do so while retreating and circling, rather than barrelling forward.
He has crisp boxing, and he mixes in some leg kicks in order slow his opponents' pursuit of him around the cage.
He leaves something to be desired defensively. He has little interest in blocking incoming shots. His movement allows him to stay out of the way of most heavy strikes, but it's a high-risk, high-reward method that relies on being a step quicker than his opposition.
Benitez is also fairly limited on the ground (at least compared to Miller), with just two takedowns in his UFC career – both after hurting his opponent with strikes.
Still, Benitez should be well-versed enough to at least avoid danger against Miller.
(ESPN Bet is now live! Place your UFC Vegas 84 bets with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.)
Miller vs. Benitez Pick
My heart really wants Jim Miller here. He's planning on fighting at UFC 300 – having already fought at UFC 100 and 200 – in just three short months, and he needs to escape this one relatively unscathed.
But I just can't get there. His hard-charging striking style is tailor-made for Benitez, who loves to stay at range and counterstrike. Benitez's defensive holes leave room for a puncher's chance from Miller, but I'm not sure he has the speed and accuracy to land on a younger, quicker fighter.
I also don't see Miller being able – if he's even willing – to get this to the ground with any degree of confidence. Certainly not enough to lay favorite money on him, at least.
I also like what I saw form Benitez since moving up to 155 pounds. He obviously had a brutal weight cut to 145 after nearly 15 years in the weight class, which clouds some of his recent results at the lighter division.
Going up a class also helps Benitez in the speed department, especially against 40-year-old Miller.
Between the improved form at 155 pounds, the underdog line, and the non-zero chance Miller has finally run out of time, I'm on Benitez's moneyline. The best odds are at Caesars at +130, and I'd take it down to even money.
The Pick: Gabriel Benitez (+130 at Caesars)
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
