Uriah Hall vs. Sean Strickland Odds, Pick & UFC Fight Night Main Event Prediction (Saturday, July 31)
Chris Unger / Getty Images. Pictured: Uriah Hall and Sean Strickland.
- Two middleweights on a winning streak face off on Saturday night at the UFC Apex when Uriah Hall faces Sean Strickland.
- Both 185-pounders are on four-fight winning streaks and could put themselves among the real contenders with another win.
- Erich Richter breaks down the matchup and delivers his best bet below.
Uriah Hall vs. Sean Strickland Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 Rounds (-250 / +200)|
|Time||Approx. 11:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday at 5:30 p.m. ET and via BetMGM.|
A pair of stand-up specialists square for Saturday’s main event in the UFC. The always explosive No. 8 Uriah Hall will take on No. 11 Sean Strickland in the middleweight division.
The winner of this fight should be a legitimate contender to get a shot against champion Israel Adesanya. Several of the fighters ranked ahead of Strickland and Hall have been beaten by Adesanya already or are currently battling injuries.
Both fighters are riding four-fight win streaks, but this Saturday’s matchup will put an end to one of them.
Below, I preview the matchup and odds for Saturday’s main event.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||9:11||12:06|
|Weight (pounds)||185 lbs.||185 lbs.|
|Date of birth||7/31/84||2/27/91|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.34||5.14|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.54||3.64|
|Take Down Avg||0.67||1.14|
This fight is unlikely to touch the mat unless someone is unconscious. Hall showcases unbelievable power in his punches and incredible athleticism.
These characteristics had him on the fast track to stardom in 2013 during his time on The Ultimate Fighter. He shockingly lost the finale of the show to Kelvin Gastelum — who ended up being a top-level competitor in the division for years to come.
Uriah has had an up and down career, but time has actually helped him. His losses against top contenders like Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa are no longer a black eye for his career.
Conversely, Strickland has been showing dramatic improvements in his game. He has proven himself to be on another level when compared to Krzysztof Jotko and Brendan Allen.
What is most impressive is his volume of strikes. Strickland lands 5.14 significant strikes per minute and defends strikes at an excellent 67% rate — good for tops in the entire middleweight division.
Hall vs. Strickland Pick
Hall’s power is going to be a major difference here. He typically sits back and counterstrikes as he sees fit. This is showcased by his relatively alarming significant strike differential (-.20).
Against Bevon Lewis, Hall was getting beat up pretty bad. Hall was able to land a knockout late in that fight, but he was on his way to a three-round decision loss. Lewis struggled in the UFC, with a 3-3 record before being cut last year.
The biggest key to victory for Hall is his speed. In his wins, he utilizes great hand speed to land heavy shots. If he is unable to do this from the beginning, he is unlikely to pull off a victory.
Strickland’s incredible striking defense could be on full display this Saturday. Prefight if you are looking to bet Strickland, I do show value on Strickland to win via decision on PointsBet (+215 down to +195).
However, I see better value in Hall as a pretty big underdog of +180 on BetMGM. Hall has fought in a five-round fight in his career, unlike Strickland. Hall has incredible power and much better strength of schedule than Strickland.
Furthermore, In a stand-up battle — where it is unlikely to see either fighter grapple — we should know who is going to win this one after the first round. I wouldn’t be afraid to add another unit after round one at plus money if Hall is controlling the action or hedge if Strickland’s striking defense is holding up.
Overall, I think Hall as a+180 underdog is a gift prefight. This should come down after round one. I would bet his prefight moneyline down to +155.
The Pick: Uriah Hall ML +180 (Down to +155)
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