While we don’t have public bet percentages on specific player props, we do have them for the spreads and over/unders of each game. By identifying discrepancies between the percentage of betting tickets and percentage of money in a particular game, we can find situations where the books may be undervaluing teams, and by relation, players, in certain spots.
With that in mind, here are three props from Friday night’s ESPN/ESPN2 slate that are worth considering:
- John Wall over/under 10.5 assists (vs. TOR) — 8 p.m. ET
- Al Horford over/under 2.5 free throws made (@ MIL) — 9:30 p.m. ET
- Eric Bledsoe over/under 5.5 assists (vs. BOS) — 9: 30 p.m. ET
All lines accurate as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Friday, April 20.
Wizards G John Wall Over 10.5 Assists vs. Raptors (-115 at Bovada)
8 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Wall has dropped 11-plus dimes in six of his past nine games and has averaged 11.3 over 17 combined regular-season and postseason games since Jan. 1. There’s more than a 25% difference between the percentage of money and tickets on the over in this game as of this writing, which means the books could be undervaluing the offenses in this matchup. Per NBA Stats, Wall’s 90.2 touches per game through two playoff games represent an increase of 9.4 per game over his regular-season average, and those extra touches should afford him the opportunity to top 10 assists for the seventh time in his past 10 games.