Lakers vs Nuggets: Game 5 Prediction, Odds, Pick (Monday, April 29)

Here's everything you need to know about Lakers vs. Nuggets on Monday, April 29 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Lakers did it! They finally beat the Nuggets after 11 straight losses, and now we have ourselves a Game 5 — something LA couldn’t force last season.

Despite the fact that the Lakers were down 3-0, this series might not be as decided as it seems if Jamal Murray (calf) isn’t able to play Monday night. Reggie Jackson (ankle) isn’t a guarantee either, although he is listed as probable. Still, with depth as one of the Nuggets' few weaknesses, if Murray doesn’t suit up, we could be seeing a Game 6 as well.

Let's take a closer look at Lakers vs. Nuggets Game 5 with our preview and pick below.

Game 4 seemed to be following the usual game script. The Lakers go up at halftime, the Nuggets make it a game in the third quarter and Denver takes home the win down the stretch in the fourth. But this time, the Lakers were able to hold onto their lead and force a Game 5 thanks to contributions from D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves, who each chipped in 21 points.

Russell has been the catalyst for this Lakers team; when they’ve been able to get him going, that’s meant good things for LA. He was essentially played off the court in the 2023 Western Conference Finals against the Nuggets, so one of the early adjustments made by Darvin Ham was to figure out how to compete with Denver without Russell as primary part of their offense.

But Russell's offensive success — because let’s be real, he’s not doing anything for you defensively — isn’t just a bellwether against Denver, it’s any Lakers playoff opponent. Since acquiring Russell, the Lakers are 8-1 straight up and 9-0 against the spread (ATS) when he scores more than 17 points in a playoff game.

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Murray’s status is obviously a massive factor in this game considering bench production has been the biggest X-Factor for the Nuggets. They haven’t gotten much from anyone outside of Christian Braun, and even Braun’s offensive production has been sporadic. The Nuggets don’t need much help outside of their starting five when everyone is healthy, but that changes when they’re down a starter.

The Nuggets went 13-10 without Murray during the regular season and just 8-15 ATS. If he sits, we should see more Jackson, who sees an uptick in usage, assist rate, effective field goal percentage and shot quality, per pbpstats.com. He’ll likely be the starter in Murray’s absence, although we might see more minutes from Braun or just the rest of the starters in any case.

Nikola Jokić also sees increased usage with Murray out, and he might look to score more than he normally does. Regardless, Murray’s status is integral and we’ll need to see how the injury report shakes out before making any plays on the Denver side.

Because of the uncertainty around Murray, my favorite angle is a slightly more unusual one that is more variant, but limits our risk.

Since we know the Lakers live and die with Russell’s offensive success, let’s parlay his points over 16+ with the Lakers to cover the 7.5-point spread. That gets us +210 and we can essentially play the Lakers spread at more than two-to-one odds in a game in which Denver could be without Murray anyways.

If Murray is out, I’ll look to Jokić points + assists and Braun points or Jackson assists, assuming he plays. Follow me in the Action app (@nbaWatts) to see how I play the Nuggets side post-Murray news.

Picks:

• D'Angelo Russell Over 15.5 Points & Lakers +7.5 (+210)
• Nuggets props post-Murray news (Follow @nbaWatts in the Action app)

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