NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Tuesday, March 19

The NBA schedule isn't very big on Tuesday — it features only five games — but that doesn't mean there isn't betting value across the board.

Our NBA writers came through with five best bets for Tuesday's short slate, including two first-quarter bets in Mavericks vs. Spurs, as well as a moneyline parlay that rides through the last game of the night.

So, whether you want your bets to be settled early or you want to sweat into the night, we have you covered.

Read on for all five of our NBA best bets for Tuesday's slate — and be sure to check back tomorrow for even more NBA picks.

NBA Best Bets Today

By Michael Arinze

It’s not often that an NBA head coach gives away the game plan, so we must take advantage of the opportunity when it presents itself.

The Houston Rockets are undergoing a bit of a transformation following an injury to their leading scorer, forward Alperen Sengun. Sengun is currently sidelined with a Grade 3 right ankle sprain and could miss the rest of the season.

Without Sengun occupying the paint, the Rockets are taking advantage of more driving lanes. And since they don’t have to worry about slowing the game down to get Sengun his touches, they can play a bit faster.

However, following Houston’s 117-103 victory over Cleveland, Rockets head coach Ime Udoka intimated to reporters that the modified approach to their playing style began even before Sengun’s injury.

"Even before Alpie went out, like I said, the increase in pace has really been good for our guys," Udoka said. "There was [a] carryover from that tonight — probably our most complete game of our season, front-to-back."

If we look at the Rockets' last five games, NBA.com has them fifth in pace compared to 14th overall this season.

With the Rockets heading to the nation’s capital to take on the Wizards, I think we should expect another fast pace, and I don’t expect Washington to put up much resistance.

This total opened at 229 and has been bet down as low as 227.5. Given the change in how we see the Rockets running their offense, I disagree with the move, as my model projects a total closer to 231.8 points.

I’ve never been shy of fading the market, and I’m willing to do so again by playing this game over 227.5 points or better.

Pick: Over 227.5 or Better

By Joe Dellera

The Pelicans take on the Nets on Tuesday, and this is a game between two teams that are trending in dramatically different directions.

Since the All-Star break, the Pelicans have been smashing. They own the third-best Net Rating in the NBA, but they’ve been even better to start the game.

In the first half, the Pelicans have gone 8-4 with a +15.7 Net Rating. Their starters and bench unit are both strong, and their rotations optimize their talent. Starting off strong has been a hallmark of New Orleans this season.

On the flip side, Brooklyn has struggled to start games. It's 5-9 with a -1.7 Net Rating in the 1H since the All-Star break. Additionally, the Nets are -2.6 in Net Rating in the full game which is the 21st-ranked Net Rating since the break.

New Orleans is a much better team at this juncture, and given its drive and focus out of the break, I expect it to start this game off strong.

I’ll lay the points with the Pelicans in the first half.

Pick: Pelicans 1H -4.5

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By Bryan Fonseca

As mentioned on the "Buckets" podcast, the spreads scare me, but ultimately, I think the Pelicans and Nuggets both get it done on the road.

The Pels are in Brooklyn and have been playing like true aspiring contenders, going 15-4 in their last 19 with a 12-5 straight-up record as a road favorite.

In general, they're tied for the third-best road record in the NBA.

And really, the Nets are uninspiring enough for me to like the Nuggets to cover -7 as well. The reason I didn't is because every time I fully buy the Pels, they mess around, and I could see the Nets backdooring this one.

On the Nuggets side, I like this more that Rudy Gobert is out. But even if he's there, I trust Denver's late-game execution, whereas I'm skeptical of Minnesota's, which may also miss Naz Reid tonight.

Denver isn't a very good team ATS — it's 15-19-1 on the road this year. But straight up? The Nuggets are 20-15, which is eighth in the league.

Vegas is expecting a tight one. I think this could be a one-possession contest, and if it's down to the wire, give me the late-game execution of a team led by Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

I got this at +113 last night when there was more skepticism about Gobert playing, so the number may drop a tad if the feeling is he sits.

Pick: Pelicans + Nuggets ML Parlay (+113)

By Joe Dellera

Luka Doncic is a 1Q merchant.

On the season, Doncic averages 9.7 points, 2.7 rebounds and and 2.9 assists in 9.7 minutes during the first quarter, and his rotation is fairly secure.

Over his last 15 games, he has not played fewer than eight minutes, and he has exceeded 8.5 points in 10 of those 15 games.

This matchup against the Spurs is a strong one as well. The Spurs play at the third-fastest pace in the league, while the Mavericks play at the ninth-fastest.

If we look at this even closer, since the All-Star break, the Spurs play at the fastest pace in the first quarter while the Mavericks play at the fourth-fastest pace. These teams start off the game running.

The Spurs' 1Q defense has been solid over this stretch; however, Luka has torched the Spurs in the 1Q scoring seven, 17 and 13 against them this season.

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 8.5 1Q Points

By Joe Dellera

The Spurs take on the Mavericks today, and one player to target is Victor Wembanyama.

Wemby has been incredible on the season, but he’s really locked in of late and is averaging 22.2 points, 11.8 rebounds and 4.8 assists in 11 games since the All-Star break.

I’m targeting him in the first quarter specifically, though. He's averaging 5.7 points, 4.2 rebounds and 1.1 blocks in the 1Q over this same stretch. His 1Q rebounds line is set at 2.5 — a number he has exceeded in all 11 games out of the break.

Looking at this specific matchup, the Spurs play at the third-fastest pace in the league, while the Mavericks play at the ninth-fastest. And as mentioned above, San Antonio has played at the fastest pace in the first quarter since the break, while Dallas has played at the fourth-fastest

It’s a pace-up spot for both teams that like to start the game off running.

I expect Wemby to exceed 2.5 first-quarter rebounds tonight.

Pick: Victor Wembanyama Over 2.5 1Q Rebounds (-115)

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