NBA Picks, Odds, Best Bets: 3 Expert Picks, Including Clippers vs Blazers, Warriors vs Mavericks

Tuesday features a very small slate of games across the NBA with just three matchups: Knicks vs. Pistons (7 p.m. ET), Warriors vs. Mavericks (7:30 p.m. ET on TNT) and Clippers vs. Trail Blazers (10 p.m. ET on TNT).

Our crew is focused on tonight's nationally televised matchups and they are betting both sides of tonight rematch of the Western Conference finals along with the spread of the late game.

Check out their best bets for Tuesday night below.

NBA Odds & Picks

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

Chris Baker: The Warriors have seemingly figured it out over the past two weeks as they have won five of their last six games and have actually won three straight games. Looking at back at their schedule and you see that five of their last six wins have come against teams that rank bottom-10 in adjusted net rating.

The one non-bottom 10 win was against the Utah Jazz who were missing their starting point guard Mike Conley. Look back at Dallas’ recent schedule and you see that they have played three straight games against top-10 net rating teams and all three were on the road.

I think we are getting some value on the Mavericks here due to the contrasting schedules these teams have played of late. Strip away all the recency bias and we are getting a Mavericks team that ranks seventh in Adjusted Net Rating vs a Warriors team that ranks 16th. Dallas’ process is still excellent as they rank top-five in Location Effective Field Goal Percentage on both sides of the ball, according to Cleaning the Glass.

This stat strips out the makes and misses and focuses on the teams shot profile. The Mavericks are forcing tough shots and getting great looks but they have been on the wrong end of shooting variance. The Warriors are the opposite of the Mavericks on offense as they have been taking difficult shots (26th in location effective field goal percentage), but making them as they rank second in Actual Effective Field Goal Percentage.

We should expect these numbers to converge towards each other as the season wears on and there is no better spot then against a Dallas defense allowing the third lowest 3-point attempt rate in the NBA. I think the Dallas offense can get going against this Warriors defense that has excelled at taking away the rim (first) but struggled defending the 3-point line as they rank just 22nd in 3-point attempt rate allowed.

I like the Mavericks to get going in this one and make a statement as they defend their homecourt versus a hot Golden State Warriors team. Back the better team as home underdogs.

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Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks

Andrew O'Connor-Watts: I'm on the other side here. The Warriors are absolutely rolling right now, riding a three-game winning streak in which they’ve won by an average of 17 points per game.

Since the Warriors earned their first road win of the season — which came at the hands of the Houston Rockets — they’ve played like a different team. The most noticeable difference since the change has been defensively, although their offense has been even better as well. The Warriors' Defensive Rating before Wiseman’s demotion was the fourth-worst in the league (114.1) behind only the Pistons, Spurs and Rockets.

Since then, they’ve improved to just around league average at 111.5, and they’ve been even better in their three-game winning streak with a 109.4 Defensive Rating. With their improved defense, the Warriors’ ability to exploit the Mavericks in transition should be a significant factor. They currently rank seventh in the league on Points Per Play in transition (129.3) while the Mavericks are third-worst with 136.0 allowed, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Unlike the Warriors, the Mavericks’ biggest issue of late has been their defense. Before their losing streak, the Mavericks had the third best Adjusted Defensive Rating (108.5) according to Dunks and Threes, which takes into account strength of schedule. In the last four games, Dallas has fallen to 11th in the league at 110.6.

The Mavericks' defensive scheme relies heavily on limiting opponent 3s and layups and they just so happened to run into teams that can exploit that weakness. The problem for the Mavericks will be preventing the rain of 3s from the Splash Brothers. The Warriors are the number one team in 3-Point Rate (44.7%), but last in Rim Rate (26.4%).

I lean over, but this is a bad spot for Dallas, which comes home after a three-game road trip that included the Thanksgiving break. The Mavericks either stayed on the road in Boston or flew home to Dallas and then to Toronto.
Either way, it’s a lot of traveling despite the fact that they find themselves in comfortable territory on home court.

Expect the Dubs to keep rolling and the Mavs to find their next win in Detroit on Thursday. I like the Warriors all the way down to -2.5

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Jacob McKenna: Both Portland and L.A. will likely have stars on the bench for this matchup, which throws a small wrinkle into this game.

Paul George, Kawhi Leonard and Luke Kennard have already been ruled out for this game. Without all three of those guys on the floor this past week, the Clippers have won just one of their last three games in a stretch that has seen sub-par offensive production, which has been the case for this team for a majority of the season.

The first quarter of the season has been one to forget for Los Angeles from an offensive perspective. Through 21 games the Clippers rank 29th in the NBA in Offensive Rating at 107.4, down from 109.5 a season ago.

The Blazers will also be without their best player, Damian Lillard, for the fifth game in a row. The Trail Blazers began their season by winning nine of their first 12 games, but since then have fallen back to Earth.

The most glaring issue that this team is having during this rough patch has been on the defensive end of the floor, as Portland has allowed opponents to score 109 points or more in each of the last eight games.

However, even without Damian Lillard in the lineup for the last four games, the Blazers have managed to stay afloat on the offensive end of the floor. In that timeframe, they have posted an Offensive Rating of 111.2 and have shot 47% from the floor overall, with much of that production coming from Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons.

Even with a massive dip in production of the defensive end lately, Portland is still in a good position to hold an already weak Clippers offense in check. With George, Kennard, and most recently John Wall being announced as out, I wouldn't be surprised to see Leonard to continue to sit for at least one more game. That will open up the door on both ends of the floor for the Blazers.

Expect Grant, Simons, and the rest of the Blazers to feast in a game where very little defensive resistance will be presented to them.

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