NBA Player Prop Pick: Fade Jaylen Brown in Heat vs Celtics

NBA Player Prop Pick: Fade Jaylen Brown in Heat vs Celtics article feature image

Via Brian Babineaux/Getty Images. Picture: Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics looks on during Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals against the Miami Heat on May 19, 2023 at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.

  • The Celtics are heavy home favorites in Game 5 against the Heat.
  • With Boston facing elimination, Jaylen Brown will play a key role, and our NBA prop betting analyst has a play ready for Brown tonight.
  • Find PropBetGuy's NBA player prop pick and analysis below.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

NBA Player Prop & Pick

Jaylen Brown, Under 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists -115

Time8:30 p.m. ET
Books AvailableFanDuel

While the Celtics took care of business in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals to keep their season alive, an abundance of questions remains for Game 5, and potentially beyond.

One key question revolves around Jaylen Brown and his level of play. The All-Star has not played up to his billing this series, staying under this line in three of the four games. In fact, he’s failed to clear 25 PRA in each of the last three games while only averaging 29.7 PRA since the start of the Conference Semifinals.

The swarming Heat defense has been a significant reason for Brown’s decline in production in this series. The Cal product has shot 3/25 from deep against Miami, with only four wide-open looks. Jimmy Butler and Gabe Vincent have done an admirable job slowing down Brown.

In addition to struggling with his shot, Brown hasn’t been scoring off drives the way we’re accustomed to seeing. The seventh-year pro is only scoring 5.4 points per game off drives this series, compared to 8.8 in the regular season.

Brown was also the NBA’s fourth-leading scorer in transition during the regular season, but he's had a tough time getting out on the break against the Heat, who did a solid job of limiting their own turnovers until Game 4.

I’m going with the fully-loaded PRA line here because Brown’s averaging almost three fewer rebounding chances per game this series. And on the passing front, he’s not been adept at getting his teammates in a solid scoring position against Miami’s defense.

More on the subjective side, Brown just hasn’t looked right – whether he’s unhappy with his diminished role, struggling to get going against a strong team defense, or a combination of the two. I’ll put my money on his struggles continuing tonight, as I’d play this line down to under 32.5 PRA.

Pick: Jaylen Brown Under 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115 | Play to Under 32.5 PRA)

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