PropBetGuy’s Sunday NBA Player Prop: Expect Inconsistency From Dillon Brooks in Game 1
Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Dillon Brooks #24 of the Memphis Grizzlies.
PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Dillon Brooks, 24.5 PTS + REB + AST
|Prop||Under 24.5 PRA|
|Matchup||Warriors vs. Grizzlies|
|Time||3:30 p.m. ET|
We’ve moved on to Round 2 of the NBA playoffs. Not only does that bring new matchups, but Game 1 of a series typically means books won’t be quite as sharp with their player prop lines, compared to the end of a series.
With the Grizzlies coming off an emotional series win against the Minnesota Timberwolves, I’m looking to fade Dillon Brooks on the quick turnaround to Game 1 against the Warriors. The Memphis wing was 50/50 to this line in Round 1, but Golden State should present a much more difficult matchup.
Brooks is a very streaky shooter, and last series was a microcosm of his inconsistency. In the three games Brooks exceeded this line, he shot 49% from the field, including a ridiculous 11-of-14 from long range. In the other three games, Brooks shot 23%, including 2-of-21 on 3s.
The Warriors, now fully healthy, are once again clicking on defense. In the regular season, Golden State held its opponents to the third-lowest Effective Field Goal Percentage, and rated as the league’s second-best defense.
I like the hot-and-cold Brooks to struggle a bit more in this series from the field, against a premier perimeter defense. And with him likely to be chasing either Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson on defense, his rebounding chances should also remain minimal. I have the Oregon product projected at 21 PRA today.
Pick: Under 24.5 PTS + REB + AST (-110) Playable to under 23.5 PRA
Get all of PropBetGuy’s bets instantly in The Action Network app.