PropBetGuy’s Sunday NBA Player Prop: Expect Inconsistency From Dillon Brooks in Game 1

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Dillon Brooks, 24.5 PTS + REB + AST

We’ve moved on to Round 2 of the NBA playoffs. Not only does that bring new matchups, but Game 1 of a series typically means books won’t be quite as sharp with their player prop lines, compared to the end of a series.

With the Grizzlies coming off an emotional series win against the Minnesota Timberwolves, I’m looking to fade Dillon Brooks on the quick turnaround to Game 1 against the Warriors. The Memphis wing was 50/50 to this line in Round 1, but Golden State should present a much more difficult matchup.

Brooks is a very streaky shooter, and last series was a microcosm of his inconsistency. In the three games Brooks exceeded this line, he shot 49% from the field, including a ridiculous 11-of-14 from long range. In the other three games, Brooks shot 23%, including 2-of-21 on 3s.

The Warriors, now fully healthy, are once again clicking on defense. In the regular season, Golden State held its opponents to the third-lowest Effective Field Goal Percentage, and rated as the league’s second-best defense.

I like the hot-and-cold Brooks to struggle a bit more in this series from the field, against a premier perimeter defense. And with him likely to be chasing either Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson on defense, his rebounding chances should also remain minimal. I have the Oregon product projected at 21 PRA today.

Pick: Under 24.5 PTS + REB + AST (-110) Playable to under 23.5 PRA

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