PropBetGuy’s Tuesday NBA Player Prop: Buy Dorian Finney-Smith’s Improved Scoring in Game 5
Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Dorian Finney-Smith #10 of the Dallas Mavericks.
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Dorian Finney-Smith, Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds
|Prop||Finney-Smith Over 17.5 P + R (-106)|
|Matchup||Mavericks vs. Suns|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
One of the unsung heroes for the Mavericks during this playoff run has been Dorian Finney-Smith. The Mavs forward is already widely considered one of the better perimeter defenders in the league, but it’s his steady offensive game that has been somewhat surprising. DFS is averaging 19.1 points and rebounds combined in a whopping 40 minutes per game during these playoffs.
And yes, he’s coming off a monster game in which he hit eight 3-pointers en route to a 32 P+R game. But the fact is that he’s 29-of-47 to the over on this number when he’s played at least 36 minutes this season, including 7-of-9 in the playoffs.
Plus, with the Suns’ continued focus on stopping Luka Doncic, DFS is the beneficiary of some great looks. 30 of his 40 shots (75%) have been tracked as open, a bit higher than the 71% he saw in the regular season. Even after his big game, I don’t see the Suns adjusting defensively to stop a low usage player.
With Dwight Powell virtually being phased out of the lineup, Finney-Smith is being relied on even more from a rebounding perspective as well. He’s second to Doncic this series with 19 rebounds. Tonight, I have the sixth year pro projected just north of 20 P+R.
Pick: Finney-Smith Over 17.5 P + R (-106). Also playable at over 11.5 points.
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