PropBetGuy’s Tuesday NBA Player Prop: Fade Jaylen Brown in Tough Matchup vs. Milwaukee

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Jaylen Brown, 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists

Coming off a successful fade of Jaylen Brown in Game 1 against the Milwaukee Bucks, I’m doubling down for Game 2. Brown has yet to eclipse this line in his five playoff games so far. Last game, he saw a smattering of individual matchups, including Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Jevon Carter and Wes Matthews — all of whom are plus defenders.

However, diving into Brown’s advanced stats, he really struggled with the length of the Bucks front line. Brown drove the ball to the basket 10 times in the game, only shot twice, and missed both attempts. In fact, the Celtics' main four ball-handlers (Brown, Tatum, Marcus Smart and Derrick White) shot a combined 0-of-10 on drives to the basket.

Milwaukee’s defensive forte is packing the paint — hence why nine of Brown’s 13 shot attempts were from behind the arc. The Cal product has struggled mightily with his jump shot in the playoffs, shooting a measly 30% (including 7-28 from long distance). I’m happy to take my chances on Brown’s jumper coming into Game 2.

And, the Celtics wing did run a bit hot with his rebounds and assists last game, converting both higher than his season averages.

He’ll see 38-plus minutes of floor time, which makes this a bit of an uncomfortable play. But I have Brown projected just shy of 30 PRA tonight.

Pick: Jaylen Brown under 33.5 points + rebounds + assists (-113) — Playable down to 32.5 PRA

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