Celtics vs. Heat NBA Player Prop: How to Fade Jimmy Butler in Miami (October 18)

Jimmy Butler, Points + Rebounds + Assists

On our first Friday of the NBA season, we’re treated to a rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Finals. With the Celtics and Heat squaring off, in what should be a hard-fought, defensive battle, I’m looking to fade Jimmy Butler’s combined points, rebounds and assists line (PRA).

Just looking at Butler’s raw stats from last season, it’s easy to see the edge on this play. The Marquette product averaged 32.8 PRA in 34 minutes per game. In his two regular season matchups against the Celtics, he netted 26 and 29 PRA.

The Celtics were the NBA’s best defensive team last season and seem poised to repeat on that end of the floor again this year. Despite being without Robert Williams manning the post, Boston’s perimeter defenders of Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon and even Jayson Tatum give the Celtics multiple matchups to throw at Butler.

Both teams also ranked in the bottom seven in Pace last season, with the Celtics allowing both the fewest points and assists to their opponents. In a slow, defensive battle, it’s hard to see Butler accumulating enough opportunity on both the points and assists front to eclipse this line.

Tonight, I have Butler projected around 31 PRA. I’d play this line down to under 34.5.

Pick: 36.5 (-120). Play to 34.5.

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