PropBetGuy’s Monday NBA Player Prop: The Klay Thompson Fade for Game 2

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Klay Thompson Points + Rebounds + Assists

After consecutive days of successfully playing PRA unders on the likes of Nikola Jokic, Trae Young, and Brandon Ingram (and unsuccessfully on Anthony Edwards), I bring you my latest uncomfortable fade: Klay Thompson.

Thompson’s return to action undoubtedly was one of the better storylines of this NBA season. However, with an inflated PRA line, I’m looking at the under for the Splash Brother tonight.

Thompson stayed under this line in seven of the 12 regular season games in which he played at least 32 minutes. And while he finished the season with some strong performances, they came against some subpar defenses (the Atlanta Hawks, Los Angeles Lakers and Washington Wizards).

The Nuggets were one of the better teams at defending the 3-point line this season. They allowed the fifth-lowest open 3-point frequency (defined as the closest defender being at least 4 feet away from the shooter), according to NBA Advanced Stats.

Thompson actually saw a slight uptick in his open looks in Game 1 (eight of his 15 field goal attempts), and was only able to turn that into 19 points (24 PRA). I expect the Nuggets to continue to look to clamp down on Klay.

It’s not fun to take an under on a microwave-type scorer like Thompson. However, I only have him projected at 26 PRA tonight and I would bet this down to 28.5.

Pick: Klay Thompson under 29.5 PRAs. Would only play at 28.5.

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