PropBetGuy’s Sunday NBA Player Prop: Bet Marcus Smart to Bring Offense in Bucks-Celtics Game 7

PropBetGuy’s Sunday NBA Player Prop: Bet Marcus Smart to Bring Offense in Bucks-Celtics Game 7 article feature image
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Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Smart #36 of the Boston Celtics.

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Marcus Smart, Over 14.5 Points

PropSmart Over 14.5 Points (-110)
MatchupBucks vs. Celtics
Time3:30 p.m. ET
Books AvailableFanDuel

When you reach Game 7 of a series, there won’t be many more edges to find based of the individual matchups. With both teams having adjusted all series, the final game is determined by which team executes the best.

But the fact remains, this is a true win-or-go-home situation. And Marcus Smart, the Celtics' emotional leader, has never been shy about getting up shots when the Celtics are facing elimination.

Here’s how he has performed in his past four such situations:

  • 2020 Conference semifinals Game 7: 15 shots in 43 minutes
  • 2020 Conference finals Game 6: 22 shots in 36 minutes
  • 2021 first round Game 5: 17 shots in 39 minutes
  • 2022 Conference semifinals Game 6: 16 shots in 40 minutes

In each of those games, Smart eclipsed his shot per minute average from the regular season. And I expect today to be no different.

Smart is looking at another 40-plus minutes today, and I expect him to take at least 16 shots (with at least seven 3-point attempts). Dating back to the regular season, Smart is nine of his past 11 to the over when shooting just 13 shots.

Even a poor shooting day would yield at least 15 points, but I have the Oklahoma State product projected at 17 points today.

Pick: Smart over 14.5 Points (-110, 0.75 units) Play the over up to 15.5 points

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Doug Ziefel
Jul 13, 2024 UTC