PropBetGuy’s Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 Player Prop Pick: Keep Betting Jaylen Brown’s Rebounds (May 25)
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Jaylen Brown.
PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Jaylen Brown — Over 6.5 Rebounds (-118)
|Prop||Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 Rebounds (-118)|
|Matchup||Celtics vs. Heat|
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
As with any NBA playoff series, it’s always interesting to see how sportsbooks adjust player prop lines from game to game. In most instances, the books will overcorrect to prevent instances where a player consistently goes over or stays under a specific line.
However, that’s not the case with my favorite prop of the day.
So far in the first four games of the Eastern Conference Finals, Jaylen Brown has grabbed 10, eight, nine and seven rebounds. Throughout the playoffs, he’s averaging 7.1 rebounds per 37.5 minutes, eclipsing this line in nine of the last 12 games.
But this is more than just a “He’s hitting this line at a high rate” play. He’s second on the Celtics in rebound chances per game this series at 14.5. Despite bringing in the fewest rebounds of all Boston’s starters in Game 4, he did rank second in rebound chances with 17. Basically, he’s not just lucking into rebounds.
And it makes sense, given Brown’s defensive assignments. The Cal product has typically been tasked with guarding lower-usage Heat players (Max Strus, Kyle Lowry or Gabe Vincent). Usage rate measures how often a possession ends with a player. So, with Brown’s matchups not finishing Heat possessions, it leaves him free to grab rebounds.
I have Brown, once again, projected at eight rebounds tonight. I’d play this prop up to -135.
Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 6.5 rebounds (-118); bet to -135
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