PropBetGuy’s Wednesday NBA Player Prop: Why to Fade Giannis Antetokounmpo

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Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 40.5 Points + Assists

Another regular season in the books, another stat-stuffing campaign for Giannis Antetokounmpo. The reigning finals MVP averaged 35.7 points plus assists this season as he’s led the Bucks back to the playoffs.

While it’s hard to overestimate Antetokounmpo’s value on the court, his Points + Assists line is a bit inflated tonight. In regular season games in which the Bucks forward played at least 34 minutes, he stayed under this line 19 of 32 times (59%). And without Khris middleton on the floor, Antetokounmpo only averaged 39.5 P+A per 36 minutes, with no material change to his Usage Rate.

Giannis has stayed under this line in three of four games in this series. And now that the Bulls will be without both Alex Caruso and Zach LaVine, Jrue Holiday should be able to exploit his individual matchup (likely rookie Ayo Dosunmu). I expect the Bucks point guard take on a larger role, as he did in Game 4 (26 points and seven assists).

Without their starting backcourt, and facing elimination, the Bulls face a tall task in Game 5. The Bucks took care of business in Chicago, winning Games 3 and 4 by a resounding 54 combined points. A blowout of any proportion likely leads to reduced fourth quarter minutes for Antetokounmpo.

I have the Greek Freak projected at 36 Points + Assists tonight.

Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 40.5 Points + Assists (-120, DraftKings) | Play to 39.5