PropBetGuy’s Thursday Player Prop: Back Jimmy Butler in Eastern Conference Finals Game 2 (May 19)

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Jimmy Butler Over 33.5 PTS + REB

There’s been a lot of talk about Jimmy Butler lately, and rightfully so. He dropped 41 points and grabbed nine rebounds in Miami’s Game 1 win, upping his playoff average to 37.5 P+R. His play this postseason has served as a league-wide reminder that the Heat do indeed have a superstar.

The narrative on Butler has always been that he saves his best effort when it matters most, and I’ve attempted to quantify just that.

Looking at the regular season, Butler averaged 21.4 points per game on 18.5 Point Attempts (defined as field goal attempts plus half his free throw attempts). However, against the top-10 defenses, he averaged 23.4 points on 19.6 Point Attempts (in the same amount of minutes per game). He's stepped up against better competition.

Now in the postseason, Butler is not only seeing more minutes, but he’s accrued at least 25 Point Attempts in four of the last five games. Just using his playoff average of 24 point attempts coupled with how he’s performed against elite defenses puts Jimmy Buckets at close to 29 points tonight. The volume he’s seeing is just too great to ignore.

The return of Marcus Smart does not deter me either. Butler has always scored well against the Celtics' defensive stalwart.

I’m tacking on rebounds here too because I have the Marquette product grabbing eight. That puts my total P+R projection at 37.

Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 33.5 Points + Rebounds (-111); bet to 34.5

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