PropBetGuy’s Warriors vs. Mavericks Game 3 Pick: Draymond Green Has Value in Western Conference Finals

PropBetGuy’s Warriors vs. Mavericks Game 3 Pick: Draymond Green Has Value in Western Conference Finals article feature image

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors.

PropBetGuy will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.

Draymond Green Under 21.5 PTS + REB +AST (-110)

PropDraymond Green Under 21.5 PRA (-110)
MatchupWarriors vs. Mavericks
Time9 p.m. ET
Books AvailableDraftKings

Draymond Green is one of the rare players in which his PRA line needs to be heavily scrutinized by each stat. Then again, there aren’t many players who averaged almost exactly the same amount of points, rebounds and assists.

Green’s 7.5/7.0/7.3 regular season average is definitely unique. So, in choosing to fade the mercurial forward’s PRA, let’s break it down by each category.

From a points perspective, Draymond is at his best when he’s looking to get the ball to the basket. Green only has one drive to the basket in the two games thus far as he’s been more focused on initiating the offense (more on that in a bit). He’s a 31% jump shooter this season – so with the Mavericks playing off him, I like my chances of a low-scoring game.

Rebounding is simple – with Kevon Looney back in a significant rotation role and the Splash Brothers crashing the boards hard, Green’s rebounding chances have dwindled a bit.

And on the assists front, the Warriors rely on Green to initiate the offense earlier, with Steph Curry seeing soft double teams. This, coupled with the Warriors' ball movement, has actually hurt Green’s assist totals against the Mavericks this season. Green’s assist-to-pass ratio is down by close to five percent in his three games against Dallas this season.

All in all, I have the Michigan State alum projected at 18 PRA tonight.

Pick: Draymond Green Under 21.5 PRA (-110); bet to 20.5

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