Patriots vs. Bills Odds & Betting Predictions - October 4, 2026

This reminds me a bit of the Dalton Schultz under last week. I know Kincaid is a beast, he’s currently top 5 in my fantasy rankings, but he’s much more of a big-play threat this year than a Tyler Warren type who might catch 9 balls for 50 yards. Kincaid could absolutely go 4/90/2 here, which would be great for fantasy and still cash this under. Despite seeing mostly downfield targets, Kincaid has an 82% catch rate, a career high and about 15% above expected, so there’s some regression coming there. He’s also historically been less efficient against man coverage. The Pats may play a little less man with Christian Gonzalez out, but that probably opens things up more for DJ Moore and the other WRs too, which isn’t necessarily helping Kincaid’s target volume. New England hasn’t faced any TEs of Kincaid’s caliber yet, but they’ve generally held the position below expectation. I have him closer to 4.1 receptions with around a 60% chance to stay under 4.5. Again, he can still do a TON of damage on 3-4 catches.

Played on NoVig

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

@GDAWG5000 https://youtu.be/ALbO3dG7TwU?is=7OQ_SgvqMnElDfWP

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